Highlights
Why are prison numbers falling? Are reductions due to criminal justice reform or dramatically reduced crime, arrests, and citizen contacts?
An estimated 1,465,200 prisoners were under state or federal jurisdiction. This was a decrease of more than 9% from 2009.
More than half (56%) of state prisoners were serving a sentence for a violent offense. This number applies to current charges. Most of the remaining have previous arrests for violence or have multiple arrests or convictions.
77 percent of those released from prison were rearrested.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Aspiring drummer.
Article
As I write this, we are in the middle of the Coronavirus, COVID-19 pandemic. Ninety percent of the media coverage as it relates to criminal justice issues are calls to release as many jail and prison inmates as possible to prevent the spread of the virus. Advocates and many criminologists insist that there are no public safety issues as to release.
In the midst of all this is a new report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice (see bottom of this article) stating that prison populations are already reduced, significantly so for some demographics.
The article examines the numbers, reasons for the decline, and whether reductions pose a threat to public safety.
Related Issues
Incarceration statistics do not tell the full story. Why has incarceration fallen? Is it because of criminal justice reform or are there other factors at play? Do longer prison sentences reduce crime and harm to citizens?
There are organizations that want to cut the prison population in half, Cut 50. Can we safely release hundreds of thousands of prison inmates without a detrimental impact to society?
Criminal Histories
More than half (56%) of state prisoners are serving a sentence for a violent offense. If you include past arrests or convictions, the violent percentage would be much higher. Previous Department of Justice research states that the great majority of incarcerated offenders have multiple arrests, convictions, or incarcerations, Criminal Histories.
Almost three-quarters (72.8%) of federal offenders sentenced in fiscal year 2016 had been convicted of a prior offense. The average number of previous convictions was 6.1 among offenders with a criminal history. About 3 in 5 state defendants had at least one prior conviction, Previous Convictions.
Are Decreases The Result Of Reform Or Less Crime And Fewer Arrests?
Data from the National Crime Survey and FBI state that we are at record historical lows for criminal activity. From 1993 to 2015, the rate of violent crime declined from 79.8 to 18.6 victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older. Using the FBI numbers, the violent crime rate fell 48% between 1993 and 2016. Using data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (National Crime Survey), the rate fell 74% during that span.
Violent crime, however, starting rising in 2015.
Per the FBI, the vast majority of reported crime does not end in arrest, Arrests. Most crimes are not reported to law enforcement.
Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, we know that police contacts are declining with eight million fewer citizen interactions, Police Contacts.
Arrests have fallen 25 percent over the last decade, Arrests Falling.
Based on the data above, you would expect higher percentages of prison reductions than nine percent.
Longer Sentences Equal Fewer Crimes?
The US Sentencing Commission found that incarceration lengths of more than 120 months had a deterrent effect. Each of the research designs estimated that offenders incarcerated for more than 120 months were less likely to recidivate eight years after release.
In the two models with the larger sample sizes, offenders incarcerated for more than 120 months were approximately 30 percent less likely to recidivate relative to a comparison group receiving less incarceration.
In the third model, offenders incarcerated for more than 120 months were approximately 45 percent less likely to recidivate relative to a comparison group receiving less incarceration.
Specifically, offenders incarcerated for more than 60 months up to 120 months were approximately 17 percent less likely to recidivate relative to a comparison group sentenced to a shorter period of incarceration, US Sentencing Commission.
How can advocates insist that releases from prison do not pose a public safety risk when the US Sentencing Commission is saying the opposite?
Offender Recidivism
The most common understanding of recidivism is based state data from the US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, stating that two-thirds (68 percent) of prisoners released were arrested for a new crime within three years of release from prison, and three-quarters (77 percent) were arrested within five years.
Within 3 years of release, 49.7% of inmates either had an arrest that resulted in a conviction with a disposition of a prison sentence or were returned to prison without a new conviction because they violated a technical condition of their release, as did 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release, Offender Recidivism.
Based on the above, it seems impossible to state that prison releases do not have public safety implications, especially when noting that the great majority of crime is not reported to law enforcement and most reported crimes do not end in arrest.
Violent Crime Is Increasing Per Three Out Of Four Reports
The principal reason for any confusion regarding violent crime is the increase in “all” violent crime as measured by the National Crime Survey (an increase in violent crime of 28 percent from 2015-2018) and measures of “reported” crime compiled from local law enforcement agencies via the FBI.
Per the FBI, violent crime increased in 2015 and 2016 but decreased slightly in 2017 (violence was essentially flat) and 2018 (a decrease of 3.3 percent). It decreased by 3.1 percent for the first half of 2019.
Violent crime increased in 2019 per the Major Cities Chiefs Association, Reported Violent Crime.
Per Gallup, “Each year since 2017, 15% of U.S. adults have indicated they were victimized by a crime in the past year. A subset of that, between 1% and 3%, have reported being the victim of a violent crime.” One percent of Americans were victimized by violent crime in 2016. That tripled to three percent in 2019. 2019 is the first year where violent crime reached three percent, Gallup.
Thus we have a fundamental question, which holds more importance, a 28 percent increase in all violent crime per the National Crime Survey (2015-2018), a tripling of violent crime per Gallup, an increase in violence for 2019 from the Major Cities Chiefs Association, or a 3.3 percent decrease in 2018 and a 3.1 percent decrease for the first half of 2019 for reported crime from the FBI? Violent Crime.
Is there a connection between rising violence and prison releases? Note that the average time served for violent offenses is less than three years, Time Served.
Conclusions
There are an endless array of criminal justice reform efforts to reduce prison or jail populations with limited success over the course of decades with an average reduction of approximately nine percent or a fifteen percent reduction in rates since 2009.
But the primary reason for fewer incarcerations may have more to do with considerably less contact by law enforcement (a reduction of eight million interactions) a 25 percent reduction in arrests, and vast reductions in violent and property crime before 2015.
Violent crime increased since 2015 per the Bureau of Justice Statics, Gallup, and the Major Cities Chiefs Association.
The US Sentencing Commission states that we could reduce recidivism (based on arrests) significantly through longer periods of incarceration.
The Bureau Of Justice Statistics states that three-quarters (77 percent) of released prison inmates were arrested within five years and that 55.1% of inmates within 5 years of release were incarcerated.
The collective data inevitably suggests that any mass release of prison inmates poses an increased risk to society and public safety. While criminal justice reform serves a useful purpose to make sure we have the most dangerous offenders serving appropriate sentences, a mass release across the board for violent offenders and those with a history of violence creates serious issues for citizen and community safety.
People may suggest that Coronavirus related prison releases are humane reactions to the pandemic, but many will come with citizen safety consequences based on violent histories and multiple convictions.
The collective data also suggests that reductions in the prison population are not necessarily due to criminal justice reform.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
The Crime in America.Net RSS feed (https://crimeinamerica.net/?feed=rss2) provides subscribers with a means to stay informed about the latest news, publications and other announcements from the site.
Contact
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Bureau Of Justice Statistics Report
Violent Crime
More than half (56%) of state prisoners were serving a sentence for a violent offense at year-end 2017. This number applies to current charges.
Total Numbers
At year-end 2018, an estimated 1,465,200 prisoners were under state or federal jurisdiction. This was a decrease of more than 9% from 2009, when the U.S. prison population peaked at 1,615,500, and a decrease of 2% from the 1,489,200 prisoners in 2017.
State prisoners made up 88% of the total U.S. prison population at year-end 2018 and accounted for 87% of the decline in the total prison population from year-end 2017.
The number of federal prisoners fell by 3,200, from 183,100 in 2017 to 179,900 in 2018. This was the sixth consecutive year that the federal prison population declined. Federal prisoners accounted for 13% of the decline in the total prisoner population from 2017 to 2018.
From the end of 2017 to the end of 2018, the total prison population in the U.S. declined from 1,489,200 to 1,465,200, a decrease of 24,000 prisoners. This was a 1.6% decline in the prison population and marked the fourth consecutive annual decrease of at least 1%.
State Increases And Decreases
Thirty-two states showed decreases in their year-end prison populations from 2017 to 2018. Four states had declines of at least 2,000 prisoners during that period: New York (down 2,800), Tennessee (down 2,700), California (down 2,400), and Missouri (down 2,200).
Twelve states showed increases from 2017 to 2018, with the largest increases in Texas (up 1,100), Indiana (up 850), and Colorado (up 430).
Rates
In 2018, the combined state and federal imprisonment rate was 431 sentenced prisoners per 100,000 U.S. residents, which was the lowest rate since 1996, when there were 427 sentenced prisoners per 100,000 residents, the Bureau of Justice Statistics announced.
Across a decade, the imprisonment rate fell 15%, from 506 sentenced prisoners per 100,000 U.S. residents in 2008 to 431 sentenced prisoners per 100,000 U.S. residents in 2018. During this period, the imprisonment rate dropped 28% among black residents, 21% among Hispanic residents, and 13% among white residents.
In 2018, the imprisonment rate of black residents was the lowest since 1989.
At the end of 2018, a total of 22 states had imprisonment rates that were higher than the nationwide average. Louisiana had the highest rate (695 sentenced prisoners per 100,000 state residents), followed by Oklahoma (693 per 100,000), Mississippi (626 per 100,000), Arkansas (589 per 100,000) and Arizona (559 per 100,000). Minnesota, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Vermont had the lowest imprisonment rates in the U.S., with each having fewer than 200 sentenced prisoners per 100,000 residents.
Demographics
Among sentenced state prisoners at year-end 2017, an estimated three-fifths of blacks and Hispanics (61% each) and nearly half of whites (48%) were serving time for a violent offense.
At the same time, 23% of sentenced white prisoners in state prison were serving time for a property offense, compared to 13% each of sentenced black and Hispanic prisoners.
Among prisoners sentenced to serve more than one year in state or federal prison, an estimated 3% were age 65 or older at year-end 2018. An estimated 5% of sentenced white prisoners and 2% each of sentenced black and Hispanic prisoners were age 65 or older.
As of 2018, non-U.S. citizens made up a similar portion of the U.S. prison population (7.7%) as they did of the total U.S. general population (6.9%, per the U.S. Census Bureau).
Drug Crimes
Less than 15% of sentenced state prisoners were serving time for a drug offense at year-end 2017 (4% for possession).
Violations of Supervision
Two-thirds (67%) of admissions in 2018 of sentenced state prisoners were on new court commitments, while nearly a third (30%) of admissions were due to violations of post-custody supervision. (The remaining 3% were admitted for other reasons, such as other conditional release violations, returns from appeal or bond, and other types of admissions.)
Five states admitted more than half of their prisoners for violating conditions of post-custody supervision: Washington (75%), Idaho (65%), Vermont (65%), Utah (52%) and New Hampshire (52%).
From another BJS report: “Almost all prisoners who were re-arrested (96% of released sex offenders and 99% of all released offenders) were arrested for an offense other than a probation or parole violation,” BJS.
Post Custody Supervision
Nationally, 72% of the prison releases in 2018 were to post-custody community supervision (443,300).
Among states that reported the type of release from prison, four states discharged more than half of their released prisoners unconditionally in 2018: Massachusetts (72% of releases), Rhode Island (67%), Florida (61%), and New Jersey (57%).
Private Prisons
At year-end 2018, privately operated facilities held an estimated 8% of state or federal prisoners, down 2% from year-end 2017.
Source