Highlights
This article is available as a YouTube video.
There is an index ranking 385 cities throughout the world. Crime is one of the measures used.
21 American cities are ranked as some of the most dangerous (top 100).
There are eight Canadian cities in the top 100.
Crime in America.Net-“Trusted Crime Data, Made Clear.”
Quoted by The Associated Press, USA Today, A&E Television, the nationally syndicated Armstrong Williams Television Show (27 times), Department of Justice documents, US Supreme Court briefs, C-SPAN, the National Institute of Health, college and university online libraries, multiple books and journal articles, The Huffington Post, JAMA, The National Institute of Corrections, The Office of Juvenile Justice And Delinquency Prevention, The Bureau of Justice Assistance, Gartner Consulting, The Maryland Crime Victims Resource Center, The Marshall Project, The Heritage Foundation via Congressional testimony, Law Enforcement Today, Law Officer.Com, Blue Magazine, Corections.Com, Prison Legal News, The Hill (newspaper of Congress), the Journal of Offender Monitoring, Inside Edition Television, Yomiuri Shimbun (Asia’s largest newspaper), LeFigaro (France’s oldest newspaper), Oxygen and allied publications, Forbes, Newsweek, The Economist, The Toronto Sun, Homeland Security Digital Library, The ABA Journal, The Daily Express (UK) The Harvard Political Review, The Millennial Source, The Federalist Society, Lifewire, The Beccaria Portal On Crime (Europe), The European Journal of Criminology, American Focus and many additional publications.
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A comprehensive overview of crime for recent years is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.
Note
Readers ask how the United States compares to other countries as to crime. There are sections of the world where overall crime is a significant problem. They make the US look relatively safe in comparison. These areas include parts of Central and South America and South Africa. War-torn countries are obviously of concern.
Gallup ranks perceptions of safety in countries, which may be a more accurate indicator of crime than official statistics because of crime underreporting. See Most Dangerous Cities for reviews of the data.
But considering the above, when US cities appear in a list of the world’s most dangerous cities, it catches the attention of many.
Article
There are multiple references as to crime dropping in American cities. They include data from the FBI and independent analysts. Based on crimes reported to law enforcement, their assessment is correct; homicides and overall crime are dropping considerably in 2024 and 2025, according to preliminary numbers.
But as in all things affecting any society, it’s a matter of perception and how you count the numbers. For example, Gallup reports the highest concern (or fear) ever recorded about crime in the United States. The National Crime Victimization Survey from the US Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics reports record increases for violent crime for the latest official report in 2023, up approximately 44 percent. It’s the largest increase in violence in the nation’s history.
Property crime numbers also tell a different story. Retail shrink (shoplifting-organized attacks) hit $94.5 billion in 2021, a 53% jump from 2019, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey, CNN. According to the National Retail Federation, $112.1 billion in losses were attributed to shrinkage, mostly theft and organized retail crime (ORC)—in 2022, a 19% increase over the year before. There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US. The survey indicated that there are far more porch pirate thefts than total reported property crimes to the FBI. The financial toll of these thefts is $16 billion.
USA Today: Scammers and cybercriminals stole a record total of $16.6 billion from Americans in 2024, marking a 33% increase in losses from 2023, the FBI said in a new report on April 23. The Hill (the newspaper of Congress) addressed cargo theft. The average value of each cargo theft is more than $200,000, and according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau, there has been a 1,500 percent increase in cargo theft incidents since 2021. Total cargo theft losses increased by 27 percent in 2024 and are projected to rise another 22 percent in 2025.
A growing number of firearms are being stolen from parked cars, especially in urban areas, according to a new report that highlights a frequently overlooked source of illegally circulating guns. The Council on Criminal Justice released an analysis examining five years of gun theft data reported to law enforcement in 16 cities — both urban and rural — with populations over 250,000. The number of guns reported stolen from vehicles increased by 31% over a five-year period. In large urban areas, the overall gun theft rate jumped by 42% between 2018 and 2022.
Approximately 80 percent of what we call crime are property events. Larcenies, burglaries, and vehicle thefts may be down based on the 30 percent of property crimes reported to law enforcement. Still, it’s more than possible for total property crimes to be up based on the criteria above, not counted by the FBI in their National Incident-Based Reporting System.
A Lack Of Crime Reporting Or Flawed Counts?
A crucial issue regarding crimes reported to law enforcement is the underreporting of crimes. According to the US Department of Justice, the overwhelming percentage of crimes are not reported to law enforcement. As stated, approximately 80 percent of what we call crime are property events, and only 30 percent of those are reported to the police. It’s only 7 percent for identity theft, a crime rapidly increasing per the FBI. Approximately 45 percent of violent crimes are reported per the Bureau of Justice Statistics.
It’s a theoretical possibility that a decrease of 10 percent in crime in cities is actually an increase of 10 percent, based on the lack of reporting or how you count the numbers. Due to the widespread underreporting of crime, especially property and identity crimes, what appears to be a 10% drop in crime may conceal a hidden increase of similar or greater magnitude.
States and cities continue to struggle with their crime counts. “California says crime is down. But officials know the data is flawed,” is an article in the San Francisco Chronicle. “It happened again. The California Department of Justice this week published a major report, and a corresponding press release, touting a drop in violent crime across the state. But the data underlying the report is substantially flawed — thanks to a big mistake that the DOJ was made aware of last year after Chronicle reporting, but did not fix.”
Countless US cities have had problems with accurate crime counts in the past.
There is a possibility that crime patterns are shifting rather than declining. Identity theft is exploding, per the FBI. Cargo theft is a significant and expanding problem.
Another Way Of Counting Crime-The Numbeo Crime Index
I offer these observations to indicate the difficulty of accurately measuring crime and my use of the Numbeo Crime Index below.
For most readers, the Numbeo Crime Index will be a new concept. It’s used internationally, especially in Europe, Australia, and parts of Asia.
In reality, both crimes reported to law enforcement in the US and a crowdsourced database focused on quality of life worldwide per Numbeo can be criticized for a lack of accuracy.
The Numbeo Index can include crimes reported to law enforcement and other measures. Just note that, as bad as the rates of crime reporting are in the US, authors suggest it’s even worse in other countries. There could be a self-selection bias; people who feel unsafe may be more likely to submit responses. Some cities can have a small sample. sizes
Also note that though U.S. cities rank highly on perception-based indices like Numbeo, many Latin American cities have far higher homicide rates per capita based on official data.
Numbeo’s crime index is perception-based. It’s built from surveys asking users questions like: “How safe do you feel walking alone at night?” or “How concerned are you about being mugged, assaulted, or robbed?”
It’s somewhat similar to US polling through Gallup or Pew, or the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey asking questions of citizens.
As stated, Numbeo may supplement its perception data with official crime statistics.
The UK’s Daily Mail-The World’s Most Dangerous Cities Based On Numbeo
I read an array of publications about crime, both domestic and foreign. I found an index comparing London to other world cities as to crime. The index included 21 US cities in a list of the 100 most dangerous cities in the world using the Numbeo Index via an article in the UK’s Daily Mail.
Both the Daily Mail and more on the Numbeo Index are described in the appendix of this article through Google AI. The Daily Mail uses the term “Most Dangerous Cities” based on the Numbeo Index. But the use of that term requires explanation and the context above.
United States Cities In The Top 100 per the Numbeo Index
There are 385 cities measured. I use the top 100 for brevity. The US cities in the top 100 include:
# 9 Memphis, TN
#17 Detroit, MI
# 18 Baltimore, MD
# 21 Albuquerque, NM
#25 St. Louis, MO
# 28 Oakland, CA
#32 San Juan, PR
# 36 New Orleans, LA
#37 Milwaukee, WI
#40 Chicago, IL
#42, Philadelphia, PA
#46 Atlanta, GA
#51 Houston, TX
#65 San Francisco, CA
#70 Indianapolis, IN
#72 Washington, D.C.
#79 Kansas City, MO
#86 Portland, OR
# 87 Jacksonville, FL
#92 Las Vegas, NV
#94 Minneapolis, MN
Conclusions-Observations
Why a focus on American cities and crime? Because many are celebrating “reported” crime drops in cities, and, quite frankly, it’s something worth acknowledging. Crime is devastating to urban areas. It’s very good news.
But does it tell the whole story?
The Numbeo Crime Index has flaws, but are they more concerning than a reliance on reported crime in the US when the overwhelming majority of crimes are not reported? By the way, the same questions regarding the reliance on reported crime were asked during the introduction of the National Crime Victimization Survey by the USDOJ 50 years ago.
We have cities like Baltimore proclaiming that they are no longer in the top 25 American cities for crime. Baltimore is no longer among the most dangerous places in the United States, according to U.S. News & World Report. Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott noted Baltimore’s lack of inclusion on the list during his State of the City Address.
But according to the Daily Mail, it’s the 18th most dangerous city in the world out of 385 cities measured.
How does one make sense of the two reports? Again, it’s an indication of how difficult it is to accurately count crime and the perceptions of crime. Counting crime is the wild west of sociology. It’s possible to suggest that Baltimore is a cherished place to live and, concurrently, a place to be avoided.
Contextually, we have American cities that are more dangerous than cities in South Africa or Venezuela, or Central America, so Memphis or Detroit, or Baltimore can “celebrate” crime reductions, yet they may be more dangerous than world cities known for significant crime problems based on the Numbeo Index.
Two cities come to mind when discussing dangerous areas: Tijuana, Mexico, is tied with Baltimore, yet it’s a border city housing thousands of migrants claiming criminal victimization. Cali, Colombia, known for its world drug trade and violence, scores a tad better than Baltimore.
So, as we “celebrate” crime reductions in American cities, it remains a matter of perception. American mayors are taking credit for crime drops. Violence interrupters are doing the same. But there isn’t an ounce of statistical or empirical proof based on approved research methods that the interventions they boast about are having any impact.
Crime reductions in cities may be nothing more than a reduction (regression) to the mean of past patterns of crime. Crime increased in cities after COVID; homicides increased 50 percent. Aggravated assaults increased 36 percent, according to the Major Cities Chiefs Association. Crime goes up and down for reasons we can’t fully explain.
But after spending 35 years in national and state criminal justice agencies as the director of public information or the lead spokesperson, I would be less than honest if I suggested that I wouldn’t urge my agency to “cautiously” take credit for a crime drop, regardless of how that city appeared on the world stage and the numbers used.
AI
I use Google, Google AI, and ChatGPT to fact-check and research this article.
Appendix
The Daily Mail is a newspaper located in the United Kingdom. It boasts the highest circulation of paid newspapers in the UK. It was founded in 1896. The Daily Mail’s content also appears on websites in the US and Australia, giving it a significant global reach. While lauded for its impactful journalism and campaigning, it’s also criticized for its sensationalist reporting and strong opinions on social and moral issues, per Google AI.
London can today be revealed as the 15th most dangerous city for crime in Europe as concerns continue to mount over a growing epidemic of violence, theft and robbery.
The capital, which is also the 100th worst out of 385 locations around the world, is less safe than rival European cities from Athens to Brussels and Milan to Barcelona.
London is also worse than major US cities such as New York, Los Angeles and Dallas as well as other global destinations from Cancun to Cairo and Bali to Bangalore.
The city is however only the fifth worst UK location for crime – behind Bradford, Coventry, Birmingham and Manchester, according to Numbeo’s Crime Index.
The data, which is compiled from global survey responses and has been updated regularly since 2012, ranks London particularly badly for four categories out of 15.
These are the capital’s ‘level of crime’; ‘crime increasing in the past five years’; ‘problem people using or dealing drugs’; and ‘safety walking alone during night’.
- Crowdsourced Data: Numbeo relies on user contributions for much of its data, including perceived consumer prices, property prices, crime rates (emphasis added), and other quality-of-life metrics.
- Variety of Indices: Numbeo calculates several different indices, including:
- Cost of Living Index: Measures the relative cost of consumer goods, transportation, utilities, and more, using New York City as a benchmark (index of 100).
- Purchasing Power Index: Reflects the amount of goods and services one can afford in a given location.
- Quality of Life Index: A composite index that combines factors like purchasing power, pollution, housing prices, safety, healthcare, traffic, and climate.
- Other Indices: Including Climate Index, Pollution Index, Safety Index, and Health Care Index.
- Calculation Methodology: Numbeo employs empirical formulas and filters to process the collected data and generate the index values.
- Data Reliability: While aiming for accuracy, Numbeo’s reliance on user-generated data has been a subject of discussion and occasional criticism, with instances of data manipulation being reported. To mitigate this, they utilize filtering algorithms and give higher weight to manually collected data from official sources.
- Applications: The Numbeo indexes can be helpful for various purposes, including:
- Relocation planning: Comparing the cost of living and quality of life between cities.
- Economic research: Utilizing the extensive global dataset for systematic economic research.
- General information: Providing insights into global living conditions.
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