Highlights
This article is available as a YouTube video.
Is there a shift from street crimes to digital fraud and organized property crimes? Is that shift affecting reported crime statistics through the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System or local crime counts? There is a possibility that the culture of crime is changing.
Is it possible that street criminals are turning to safer, more profitable forms of crime?
Do we have well-trained and equipped professionals at the national, state, and local levels to access, investigate, and prosecute digital crimes? That may be coming through the TRAPS Act.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations. Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization,” available at Amazon and additional bookstores.
Crime in America.Net-“Trusted Crime Data, Made Clear.”
Quoted by The Associated Press, USA Today, A&E Television, the nationally syndicated Armstrong Williams Television Show (27 times), Department of Justice documents, US Supreme Court briefs, C-SPAN, the National Institute of Health, college and university online libraries, multiple books and journal articles, The Huffington Post, JAMA, The National Institute of Corrections, The Office of Juvenile Justice And Delinquency Prevention, The Bureau of Justice Assistance, Gartner Consulting, The Maryland Crime Victims Resource Center, The Marshall Project, The Heritage Foundation via Congressional testimony, Law Enforcement Today, Law Officer.Com, Blue Magazine, Corections.Com, Prison Legal News, The Hill (newspaper of Congress), the Journal of Offender Monitoring, Inside Edition Television, Yomiuri Shimbun (Asia’s largest newspaper), LeFigaro (France’s oldest newspaper), Oxygen and allied publications, Forbes, Newsweek, The Economist, The Toronto Sun, Homeland Security Digital Library, The ABA Journal, The Daily Express (UK) The Harvard Political Review, The Millennial Source, The Federalist Society, Lifewire, The Beccaria Portal On Crime (Europe), The European Journal of Criminology, American Focus and many additional publications.
Sign up for notice of new articles on the front page of this site.
A comprehensive overview of crime for recent years is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.
Note
This article looks at shifting patterns, focusing on digital crimes. Other forms of property crimes are included, often with digital connections. The crime landscape may be changing.
Article
This article is available as a YouTube video.
Is there a shift from street crimes to digital fraud and organized property crimes? Is that shift affecting reported crime statistics through the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System or local crime counts? There is a possibility that the culture of crime is changing.
Is it possible that street criminals are turning to safer, more profitable forms of crime?
Do we have well-trained and equipped professionals at the national, state, and local levels to access, investigate, and prosecute digital crimes? That may be coming through the TRAPS Act.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.
Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations. Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization,” available at Amazon and additional bookstores.
Crime in America.Net-“Trusted Crime Data, Made Clear.”
Quoted by The Associated Press, USA Today, A&E Television, the nationally syndicated Armstrong Williams Television Show (27 times), Department of Justice documents, US Supreme Court briefs, C-SPAN, the National Institute of Health, college and university online libraries, multiple books and journal articles, The Huffington Post, JAMA, The National Institute of Corrections, The Office of Juvenile Justice And Delinquency Prevention, The Bureau of Justice Assistance, Gartner Consulting, The Maryland Crime Victims Resource Center, The Marshall Project, The Heritage Foundation via Congressional testimony, Law Enforcement Today, Law Officer.Com, Blue Magazine, Corections.Com, Prison Legal News, The Hill (newspaper of Congress), the Journal of Offender Monitoring, Inside Edition Television, Yomiuri Shimbun (Asia’s largest newspaper), LeFigaro (France’s oldest newspaper), Oxygen and allied publications, Forbes, Newsweek, The Economist, The Toronto Sun, Homeland Security Digital Library, The ABA Journal, The Daily Express (UK) The Harvard Political Review, The Millennial Source, The Federalist Society, Lifewire, The Beccaria Portal On Crime (Europe), The European Journal of Criminology, American Focus and many additional publications.
Sign up for notice of new articles on the front page of this site.
A comprehensive overview of crime for recent years is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.
Note
This article looks at shifting patterns, focusing on digital crimes. Other forms of property crimes are included, often with digital connections. The crime landscape may be changing.
Article
I wrote “What Groups Are Victimized the Most By Crime? Crime’s Shifting Landscape” based on new crime patterns. Anyone paying attention to crime data over decades knows that crime patterns shift or change.
The fundamental question is whether significant declines in violent and property crime, as recorded by the FBI, the media, and independent analysts for 2024 and 2025, are actual drops or are criminals shifting to easier, more profitable crimes?
Most of us have a hard time envisioning non-sofisticated street-level criminals turning to identity theft and fraud. It takes little skill to get a handgun and engage in a robbery. It takes even less to go through unlocked doors and windows (or breaking them) to commit a burglary. Are criminals embracing new, safer, and more profitable endeavors?
We know that the vast majority of what we call crime isn’t reported to law enforcement. We know that the great majority of reported crimes do not involve an arrest. We know that a significant number of arrests are not prosecuted, and the great majority of prosecuted crimes involve plea bargains with multiple dropped charges. We know that the great majority of those who get prison (most convicted felons do not) serve a short period of incarceration.
With all available federal statistics above from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ, it seems that criminals get away with most crimes with limited consequences.
So why change from street-level crimes to those requiring knowledge, partners, and sophistication? I interviewed hundreds of criminal offenders throughout my career and reviewed lots of criminal histories. I wasn’t impressed with their modus operandi (their method of operations). Their crimes seemed crude and without skill. Are they really transitioning to digital and additional forms of property crimes?
Why Change? Because Risks Are Fewer and Payoffs Are Greater
The bottom line is that the vast majority of the crimes listed below are not reported to law enforcement, and the vast majority of reported crimes are unsolved. The shift goes beyond digital events.
USA Today: Scammers and cybercriminals stole a record total of $16.6 billion from Americans in 2024, marking a 33% increase in losses from 2023, the FBI said in a new report on April 23. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, only 7 percent are reported.
The Hill (the newspaper of Congress) addressed cargo theft. The average value of each cargo theft is more than $200,000, and according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau, there has been a 1,500 percent increase in cargo theft incidents since 2021. Total cargo theft losses increased by 27 percent in 2024 and are projected to rise another 22 percent in 2025.
Retail shrink (shoplifting-organized attacks) hit $94.5 billion in 2021, a 53% jump from 2019, according to the National Retail Federation’s annual survey, CNN. According to the National Retail Federation, $112.1 billion in losses were attributed to shrinkage, mostly theft and organized retail crime (ORC)—in 2022, a 19% increase over the year before. Most retailers will not confront shoplifters.
There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US. The survey indicated that there are far more porch pirate thefts than total reported property crimes to the FBI. The financial toll of these thefts is $16 billion. Very few are solved.
A growing number of firearms are being stolen from parked cars, especially in urban areas, according to a new report that highlights a frequently overlooked source of illegally circulating guns. The number of guns reported stolen from vehicles increased by 31% over five years. In large urban areas, the overall gun theft rate jumped by 42% between 2018 and 2022. Very few are solved.
Reported Crimes
Approximately 80 percent of what we call crime are property events. Larcenies, burglaries, and vehicle thefts may be down nationally, based on the 30 percent of property crimes reported to law enforcement per the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Still, it’s more than possible for total property crimes to be up based on the examples above because of underreporting. Either they are counted in seperate reports by the FBI or the National Crime Victimization Survey or not counted at all.
Do Criminals Learn About New Opportunities?
What caused vehicle theft to explode in recent years? A social media video. Why are bank robberies decreasing but smartphone store robberies increasing, per USA Today? Because it’s more profitable. There have been 37 billion dollars in cybercrime losses since 2019. Why? For most of these crimes, a tiny percentage are reported to law enforcement and there are huge payoffs. There are endless opportunities to learn about crime via the internet.
Why change criminal patterns? When asked why he robbed banks, Willie Sutton (not John Dillinger) reportedly replied, “Because that’s where the money is.” The money (and lack of apprehension) are now in digital and other forms of property crime.
Is There Proof That Criminals Are Changing Their Tactics To Online Fraud?
I asked ChatGPT. Here is their answer: Yes, there is a way to frame this shift — and you’re asking the right question. The image of a street criminal smashing windows or robbing stores is evolving, not disappearing, but being supplemented or replaced in some circles by lower-tech online scams that offer higher profit, less risk, and minimal skill. Here’s how to put this trend in context.
Not All Online Fraud Is “High-Tech”
You’re absolutely right: a burner phone, a cheap laptop, and a script are often all that’s needed to run a fraud ring targeting seniors with “grandparent scams,” workers with fake job offers, taxpayers with fake IRS threats, and citizens with “you missed jury duty” impersonation scams.
These schemes are social engineering, not hacking. And they’re increasingly run by the same kinds of individuals or small crews who previously engaged in street-level property crime.
Why Street Criminals Are Moving Toward Fraud. The Motivation Is Simple:
Online fraud has lower physical risk: No confrontations, no weapons, no cameras.
Less likely to be caught: Victims don’t always report, and if they do, there’s little forensic evidence.
High return: One successful call or phishing text can bring in thousands, more than most burglaries or robberies.
Anecdotal evidence from law enforcement (and increasingly, crime data) suggests a blurring of the lines.
Local gang members are engaging in scam calls, identity theft, and online resale of stolen goods.
Former street criminals are learning basic digital fraud tactics from YouTube, Telegram groups, and local peers.
Street Tactics + Digital Access = Hybrid Criminals. Consider This:
Juvenile crews steal mail and packages and sell the information or items online.
Offenders rob cell phones and extract personal data, and use digital payment apps.
Burglars now search homes for identity info, not just valuables.
Many Criminals No Longer Need Deep Technical Knowledge. The Underground Economy Now Offers:
Phishing kits.
AI voice software.
Fake ID templates.
Remote access Trojans.
Lists of vulnerable phone numbers.
All are prepackaged and sold cheaply, often with instructions.
The Urban Street Fraud Model Is Already Here. In cities like Chicago, Houston, and Atlanta, police report:
Surge in phone-based scams run from apartments or Airbnbs.
Juvenile and adult gangs are targeting seniors through phone fraud and cash app scams.
Benefit fraud, rental assistance fraud, and PPP loan fraud are being pulled off by people with no cyber background.
These are often the same people who used to boost cars or rob convenience stores. Now they might still do that, but also engage in scams.
The TRAPS Act–Introduced In The U.S. Senate on June 10, 2025
The TRAPS Act was newly introduced in June 2025, it has been referred to the Senate Banking Committee, but has not passed either chamber—so it’s not yet law. Watch for movement in the Senate Banking Committee and eventual Senate/House votes—probably in late 2025 or early 2026.
American law enforcement is wildly understaffed while handling between 40-60 million calls for service each year. Response times to some calls take over an hour. It’s literally impossible to respond to computer-based and fraud-related crimes without specialized and highly trained personnel at all levels of the justice system.
The TRAPS Act (Task Force for Recognizing and Averting Payment Scams) is a bipartisan bill aimed at strengthening interagency coordination to combat online payment fraud and scams. It responds to rising losses, estimated at $12.5 billion in 2024, a 25% increase year-over-year. Key Features Include:
Creates A Formal Task Force, Led By The U.S. Treasury, With Members From:
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)
Federal Trade Commission (FTC)
Department of Justice (DOJ)
Federal Communications Commission (FCC)
Banking regulators and industry representatives
Mandates Annual Fraud Reviews and Reports:
The task force must analyze evolving payment scam trends and recommend regulatory and legislative actions each year for three years.
Aligns Public And Private Sectors:
Encourages coordination between banks, telecoms, fintechs, and regulators to share best practices and strategies to prevent, detect, and stop scams before payments go through.
Focuses on consumer protection, with particular concern for vulnerable populations, including seniors and military families, who are often targeted by payment scams.
Why It Matters:
Scam losses are rising rapidly—the TRAPS Act seeks a “whole-of-industry” approach.
By defining cohesive scam prevention strategies and tightening coordination, it aims to stop scammers at the source, not after consumers have already lost money.
Conclusions
There is a possibility that the culture of crime is changing. There may be reasons for the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System’s property crimes declining. Yes, property crime (including robberies) may be declining nationally, but much of the overall crime burden has shifted online or towards forms of organized property crimes (i.e., cargo theft, shoplifting, porch pirates, medicare fraud).
The TRAPS Act is a good start, “but” there is a considerable need for police officers at the state and local levels to be involved. We need a well-trained, well-equipped, and sufficient staff of experts to address emerging crimes.
There needs to be a national clearinghouse to coordinate and fund federal, state, and local investigators.
We need the ability to access and react to new trends in criminal involvement. We need to be interviewing those involved as to what they are doing and why.
We need to make cited crimes felonies, especially fraud against the elderly, with enhanced prosecutions and incarcerations. It’s the poor and vulnerable who are victimized the most. Frauds massively increase after disasters. Citizens need protection and accountability. They need to know that we in the justice system care. The system needs to change.
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
National Offender Recidivism Rates at Offender Recidivism.
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