Do Crime Rates Rise and Fall Together Across Countries?

Highlights

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There are reports of declining crime in US cities. People are asking why? Is it possible that there are similar declines across nations?

In sum, the evidence supports what I learned in college: Western Industrialized nations experienced broadly similar downward trends in homicide and serious crime.

While there are variations in magnitude, timing, and current levels, the international patterns are more harmonious than many expect.

Understanding the structural drivers (demography, healthcare, governance, policing, community trust, hard drug use, organized crime, etc.) seems essential for both explaining past successes and sustaining future progress everywhere.

We have seen significant decreases in city-reported violence and property crime since 2022. Isn’t it interesting that suddenly 80 percent of urban areas are recording reductions in reported crime?

Many mayors and police chiefs are taking credit, but the best explanation is that crime is simply returning to “normal” levels after huge increases in urban crime after the Pandemic.

If urban mayors and police chiefs are accepting credit, it would require all cities to coordinate with each other as to a common strategy, with good evaluations of their efforts.

That hasn’t happened.

So if most US urban jurisdictions are seeing drops in reported crime, are there explanations as to why?

This article suggests that reported crime decreases or increases routinely happen between nations within a similar time frame.

What this requires is not an explanation for what’s happening in America (or American cities), but factors influencing crime throughout the world. 

Does Society Control Crime?

Criminology suggests that society controls crime, not the justice system. Whether we engage in spouse abuse or use hard drugs or buy stolen property, or engage in violence or harm our kids, principally depends on what our friends, families, neighbors, the media, and communities tell us is acceptable or tolerated.

What used to be tolerated (i.e, driving while intoxicated, massive use of alcohol, striking your spouse), we now view as personally or ethically wrong. That wasn’t always the case in the US or beyond, depending on the country. There is evidence that alcohol use is declining considerably. There is data on declining drug use. Domestic violence may be down.

Criminologists seem to agree that allowed or disallowed behaviors are driven by social or national values, not the justice system.

Decreases In Reported Crime In Cities May Be Best Explained By Crime Dropping In Countries

When I left law enforcement for criminological studies, I was told that crime trend lines were similar not just for US cities or states, but that they often rose and declined uniformly throughout nations. The professor stated that international crime increases or decreases will not be in lockstep, but the trends will be similar.

If true, it changes our observations regarding crime. Crime increases and decreases for reasons we find hard to explain.

What commonalities exist throughout the United States that impact crime? Possibly a better question is the commonalities that exist throughout the world.

Over the past few decades, a striking phenomenon has emerged in criminology: many countries—particularly among the developed world—have experienced sustained declines in homicide rates and other serious crimes. While local variation remains (in levels, timing, and magnitude), the broad sweep of change suggests that structural, demographic, law enforcement, and transnational factors are driving downward trends globally.

Evidence for Declining Homicide Rates

• From 1990 to 2015, countries in North America and Western Europe saw homicide rate declines of roughly 46%. Meanwhile, Asia saw about a 38% decline, Oceania (Australia, New Zealand, Pacific islands) about 22%, The Conversation.

• According to UN data, the global homicide rate was around 6.9 per 100,000 in 2000 and declined to about 5.8 per 100,000 by 2021, Professional Security.

• In Europe, homicide rates dropped sharply since 2000: in 2000, Europe’s rate was roughly 7–8 per 100,000; by the early 2020s, it had fallen to about 2–2.5, Visual Capitalist.

• Italy is a strong example: since the early 1990s, its homicide rate dropped by more than 80%, from over 3 per 100,000 to about 0.5 per 100,000 in recent years, Our World in Data.

These are not isolated cases. Many countries across Latin America, Eastern Europe, parts of Asia, and elsewhere show comparable long-term declines, though starting from different baselines and with different trajectories, according to the University of Cambridge.

Uniformity and Variation

While the decline is widespread, some caution:

• The level of homicide remains much higher in some regions (e.g., the Americas, parts of Africa) even if the trend is downward, UN News.

• Periods of reversal can occur (increases linked to conflict, economic crisis, pandemics, and political instability). For example, global homicide numbers peaked in 2021, in part due to COVID-19-related stresses, UN News.

• Different crime types (robbery, assault, theft, etc.) may not move in perfect lockstep with homicide. Some may decline faster, others more slowly, or see temporary increases. Data is more patchy for non-lethal crimes in many countries.

• The level of criminality currently happening in Mexico, Central America, and some South American countries is concerning. Organized crime and the narcotics trade have overwhelmed the area; thus, local conditions can differ from international crime trends.

Broader Crime Trends

While homicide is well-documented, what about crime in general?

• Many (though not all) Western countries have reported decreases in violent crime (robbery, assault) and property crime over the same period. (Though data comparability is harder: differences in reporting, definitions, etc.)

• Demographic changes (especially aging populations, shrinking youth cohorts) are thought to contribute strongly to declines in many serious crimes. Younger age is strongly correlated with higher offending, so fewer people in high-risk age groups tend to reduce crime, University of South Florida.

• Improved policing, crime prevention strategies, better medical response to injuries, economies, and social factors (i.e., social media) all seem to play roles.

Why the Decline Seems “Uniform”

Here are proposed causes that might explain why many different countries show similar decline curves:

1. Demographic transitions — Many countries have fewer young males relative to older people, which reduces the risk pool for violent behavior.

2. Better healthcare and emergency response — Injuries that might once have been fatal are now more often survivable, reducing the homicide rate even if violence occurs.

3. Security improvements. Things like safer vehicles, safer homes, surveillance, and better urban design.

4. Socio-economic developments. Rising education levels, reduced extreme poverty, urbanization (though sometimes with complex effects), and stable governance.

5. Institutional change — Better policing practices, international norms (e.g., human rights, violence prevention), reduced tolerance for violence.

Implications and Challenges

• The fact that homicide is falling almost everywhere suggests that policies that respond to broad structural forces (demographics, healthcare, social conditions) may be more influential than those that are purely local.

• But major disparities remain. Regions with high baseline homicide rates (e.g., Latin America, parts of Africa) still have a large burden even if rates have dropped elsewhere.

• The future isn’t guaranteed: new stresses (economic inequality, political instability, drug trade, pandemics, climate change) could slow or reverse these declines.

Conclusion

In sum, the evidence supports what I learned in college: Western Industrialized nations, and many others around the world, have experienced broadly similar downward trends in homicide and reported serious crime.

What makes this observation even more complex is the fact that the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey offers vast increases in rates of violent crime, similar to the findings of Gallup. The same survey reports increases in urban crime for 2024, the latest full report. The complexity is causing some to propose the combination of reported crime with survey results.

While there is variation in magnitude, timing, and current levels, the international patterns of reported crimes are more harmonious than many expect. Understanding the structural drivers seems essential for both explaining past successes and sustaining future progress.