Highlights
Does negative publicity about law enforcement hamper reported crime?
Violent crime increased by significant numbers. There is no question that the US Department of Justice numbers are accurate. Yet the FBI shows decreased crime.
43 percent of violent victimizations are reported to the police.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Aspiring drummer.
Article
Violent crime increased by 28 percent from 2015 to 2018 per the US Department of Justice (September 10, 2019).
Violent crime decreased by 3.3 percent in 2018 per the US Department of Justice (September 30, 2019).
Why is there a difference?
Measuring Crime
There are two primary indexes from the US Department of Justice that measure violent and property crime in the United States. One is from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) that measures crimes reported to law enforcement.
The other is from the Bureau of Justice Statistics that measure the totality of crime through a national survey much like the census, referred to as the National Crime Victimization Survey, referred to here simply as the National Crime Survey.
There are additional measures of criminality funded by federal agencies (i.e., school crime, drug use, guns and violent crime) and data from private firms like Gallup, Crime in America.
Issues
The vast majority of what we call violent crime is not reported to law enforcement for a wide variety of reasons ranging from offender intimidation to the unlikelihood of finding the criminal to the victim knowing the attacker to the incident being a personal matter to the crime being insignificant in nature.
Back in the early 1970s, the media and the criminological community insisted that we conduct a national survey to gain a better understanding of all crime, whether it’s going up or down, and to ascertain who the victims and offenders are. Without that knowledge, many argued, we as a society could not fully understand and respond to the crime problem in the United States.
Yes, like anything else in today’s hypersensitive political environment, if you say that crime is going down, you theoretically support alternatives to incarceration and if you say that crime is going up, you are supposedly against them. It’s far more complex than this statement but the criminological/political implications are many.
Trust in Law Enforcement
One of the things we can all agree on is that law enforcement is taking a public beating due to negative publicity over shootings and use of force. Some of that coverage is deserved. Some is pure bull hockey.
The result of the coverage has lead to huge decreases in police recruitment and retention. Many (most?) officers believe that there is a literal or figurative war on cops, Running Out Of Cops.
But the FBI’s numbers regarding reported crime are probably based on trust and, quite frankly, if society is questioning the legitimacy of law enforcement, it stands to reason that people won’t report violent crimes, especially with the knowledge that most involve people victims know. Preceptions of law enforcement have an impact on our actions, NJ.Com.
Fear Of Crime
Fear of crime is at very high levels, Fear, and violence is plaguing many (not all) American cities. Fear of crime was the national top concern in 2018. Regardless as to your philosophical or political approach to violent crime, it’s a huge topic for many if not most Americans.
Quick Overview Of The Numbers
FBI: Violent crime declined by 3.3 percent between 2017 and 2018. Property crime decreased 6.3 percent during the same time period, according to Crime in the United States, 2018, the annual crime statistics report produced by the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program.
The crime data was voluntarily reported to the FBI by more than 16,000 law enforcement agencies across the country.
In 2018, there were about 1.2 million violent crimes, according to the report. Nearly every category of violent crime decreased between 2017 and 2018, with the exception of rape offenses, which increased 2.7 percent, Violent Crime Decreases.
National Crime Survey: Violent Crime: From 2015 to 2018, the total number of violent victimizations increased by 28%. The rate of total violent victimizations also increased. The number of violent incidents increased from 5.2 million in 2017 to 6.0 million in 2018, Violent Crime Increases. The number of serious violent crimes also increased, Serious Violence.
Gallup: 24% of households were victimized by violent or property crimes (excluding cybercrimes) in 2018, up from the 22% who said the same last year. Beyond the 24 percent of households victimized by violent and property crimes, 23% of U.S. households were victimized by cybercrime in 2018.
Unreported Crime
Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the increase in the rate of violent victimizations was largely due to crimes that were not reported to police (emphasis added). From 2015 to 2018, the rate of violent victimizations that went unreported to police rose from 9.5 to 12.9 per 1,000 persons age 12 or older.
Based on the 2018 survey, less than half (43%) of violent victimizations were reported to police. There were some statistically significant changes from 2017 to 2018 by type of violent crime reported to police. The percentage of rape or sexual assault victimizations reported to police declined from 40% to 25%, while the percentage of robbery victimizations reported to police increased from 49% to 63%.
As you can see from the chart below, there has been a steady decrease in the percent of violent crimes reported to the police for most categories between 2014 to 2018.
Chart
Conclusions
The National Crime Survey was implemented by many who said that it was essential for America to have a full account and understanding of violent crime. Yet when the measures go against our political or philosophical beliefs, we cherry-pick reported data to insist that crime is down.
There are endless reasons as to why people report or do not report crimes. Two drunk brothers in a bar could get into a fight where one is struck by a beer bottle, thus creating an aggravative assault. Yet the likelihood of reporting that crime to law enforcement is rather remote.
Strangers committed about 38 percent of all nonfatal violent victimizations during 2010, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Regardless of the year, it’s recognized that the majority of violent crime involves people who know each other. People who know each other have endless reasons for not reporting a violent crime.
We know that violent crime has increased and we are witnessing the chaos and fear that violence creates for a large number of metropolitan areas.
The ultimate question is whether cops are holding back from aggressive, self-initiated (proactive) policing, and whether the mistrust of law enforcement is hampering the reporting of crime and cooperation with the police. All of the mentioned constructs are well documented.
Per the US Department of Justice, we know why violent crime increased; “the increase in the rate of violent victimizations was largely due to crimes that were not reported to police.” Only 43 percent of violent victimizations were reported to police in 2018.
Violent crime increased by significant numbers. Serious violent crime is up. There is no question that the numbers are accurate.
We don’t doubt the findings from the census. If we measure crime in the same way, why anyone would anyone object to the results?
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
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