Highlights
America may be entering a new era of increasing violent crime.
The number of persons who had been victims of violent crime is up 17 percent from 2015.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University.
Introduction
Is America entering a new era of increasing violence?
Probably. Violent crime or homicides is increasing in some (not all) cities and states throughout the US. The data below offers support for a theory of increasing violence or overall criminality.
Third in a series on violent crime. See the full article and references at Crime in America.
Article
It’s challenging or inconclusive to look at any national crime report in isolation. Every data set has different methods of collection, and all measure unique things.
For example, the National Crime Survey attempts to measure most criminality (however menial) through a survey while the FBI offers crimes reported to the police. Many consider the FBI’s report to be an account of “serious” crime while the National Crime Survey addresses both reported and unreported crime.
Gallup offers data on personal and household crime and fear of crime.
It’s good to look at all to get a sense as to the status of violence
Gallup
Household crime per Gallup for 2018 increased. 24% of households were victimized by violent or property crimes (excluding cybercrimes) in 2018, up from the 22% who said the same last year. Beyond the 24 percent of households victimized by violent and property crimes, 23% of U.S. households were victimized by cybercrime in 2018.
78 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence a great deal or a fair amount, the same as health care, the number one issue-Gallup.
FBI
Violent crime increased in 2015 and 2016. Homicides increased considerably.
Preliminary data from the FBI for the first six months of 2017, however, indicated a small decrease (0.8 percent) in violent crime.
For all of 2017, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation decreased 0.2 percent, essentially flat.
A decrease going from 0.8 percent to a reduction of 0.2 percent suggests the possibility of a future upward trend.
There are similarities with 2014 where decreases for the first half of 2014 for violent crime were greatly reduced in the full report.
This preceded two years of violent crime growth.
National Crime Survey
Our claim that violent crime is increasing is supported by data from the National Crime Survey. Note that they report rates and totals.
Based on revised estimates (released on October 18, 2018) from the National Crime Victimization Survey, from 2015 to 2016, violent criminal victimizations increased for a variety of categories.
In December of 2018, The National Crime Survey released crime data for 2017 and offered 2015-2017 comparisons.
2017 is the latest available data.
Most of the sixteen categories of violent crime rates increased from 2015 to 2017. Some were flat. Three decreased.
There was no statistically significant increase from 2016 to 2017 in the number of residents who had been victims of violent crime, while there was a statistically significant increase from 2015 to 2017.
These 2017 findings follow a statistically significant increase in the number of victims of violent crime from 2015 to 2016.
The rate of robbery victimizations rose from 1.7 per 1,000 residents age 12 or older in 2016 to 2.3 per 1,000 in 2017.
The portion of U.S. residents who had been a victim of violent crime increased from 0.98 percent in 2015 to 1.14 percent in 2017. This 2-year rise in the prevalence of violent crime was driven primarily by an increase in simple assault (which is generally non-felony assault).
For the second straight year, the number of victims of violent crime was higher than in 2015.
The number of persons who had been victims of violent crime rose from 2.7 million in 2015 to 2.9 million in 2016 (up 9 percent from 2015) and 3.1 million in 2017 (up 17 percent from 2015).
The 2-year increase in the number of violent-crime victims was 455,700.
Summation–Yes, It’s Confusing
I’m not suggesting explosive increases as during the crack cocaine days of the 1980s to the mid-1990s, CityLab. But for many cities and states, the latest increases in violence are a real concern.
There are those insisting that we have never lived in safer times due to an almost continuous (and considerable) twenty-year decline in crime, but that argument is getting stale since the increases in violence began in 2015.
If you read the daily national crime reports and newspaper accounts on this site and others, you get a sense that there is a growing concern regarding violence in America.
Decreases in 2013 and 2014 from the two principle national reports (FBI and National Crime Survey) and increases in crime found in National Crime Survey data (for 2011 and 2012, categories in 2016 and numbers and rates comparing 2015-2017), and the 2012, 2015 and 2016 FBI reports (violent crime increases-violence was flat in 2017) create mixed results and needs to be watched carefully, but the trend over decades is clearly down, while increasing (or flat per the FBI) in recent years.
Most of the sixteen categories of violent crime rates increased from 2015 to 2017 via the National Crime Survey.
Data for reported crime for all of 2017 suggests that violent crime totals are essentially flat. Numbers from the National Crime Survey indicate growth in most categories of violent crime during recent years.
All surveys of concern or fear of crime show that Americans see crime as a top priority. For example, 78 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence a great deal or a fair amount, the same as health care, the number one issue-Gallup.
Contact
Contact us at leonardsipes@gmail.com.
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