Highlights
An overview of the most violent cities (based on a percentage increase) in the US from 2014-2018 from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, US Department of Justice.
There was a 28 percent increase in all violent crime per the National Crime Survey from 2015-2018. FBI data show smaller reductions.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Aspiring drummer.
Introduction
This is interesting. The Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice released FBI data ranking cities as to rates of violence, see BJS.
Why is this so intriguing? The FBI asks everyone not to rank cities as to crime data, Crime in America.
There are multiple reasons for not ranking cities but an endless number of commercial and news organizations do just that, Most Dangerous Cities. The FBI can ask to their heart’s content, but people are going to do it regardless.
It’s also thought-provoking that both the Bureau of Justice Statistics and The National Institute of Justice (both of the US Department of Justice) ranked jurisdictions as to the increase in homicides and rates of violence for metro areas and counties, both using 2015 data, see, Crime Rates.
I asked the Bureau of Justice Statistics for background information as to the new report and a review of this article but I did not receive a response by press time. There are no explanatory messages in the report beyond footnotes. After publication, BJS offered a statement. See below.
Most Violent Cities 2014-2018-Background
The chart below ranks cities for “offenses known to law enforcement, in cities with 250,000 persons or more, as reported to the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program, sorted by percent change from 2014 to 2018 in the violent crime rate per 100,000 population.”
2018 is the last year for a full account of crime reported to law enforcement, see 2015-2018 Crime Data.
Note that the FBI’s data is an account of reported crime. There is an endless number of violent crimes that are not reported (thus the need for the National Crime Victimization Survey through the Bureau of Justice Statistics) because participants see the event as a private matter, or not serious enough to report to the police or they are afraid to report.
For example, a friend could hit you with a beer bottle during an argument (a violent crime involving a weapon) but you have no intention of reporting it to law enforcement. But if you were contacted by the National Crime Survey, they will ask if you were the victim of an act of violence or if anyone used a weapon or object to attack you.
Most violent crimes are not reported to police, Crime In The US.
Please understand that there are multiple ways of evaluating (or counting) any city’s crime rate. Violent crime could skyrocket or plummet for a one year period yet be up (or down) significantly for five years. Baltimore (and other cities) is not on the list below yet it remains one of the most dangerous cities per rates of violence, homicides, and robberies.
A mass shooting could profoundly affect crime statistics, especially in communities with fairly low rates for violence. Jurisdictions with smaller numbers are prone to considerable percentage swings in crime.
Tourism, the number of workers coming into a city, economics, methods of recording crime, police-community relations or recent highly publicized events could all have an impact on crime and crime reporting.
One needs to look at the chart below and other data offered from the Bureau of Justice Statistics report (or the FBI) and keep in mind that we are dealing with reported (not all) crime.
There are footnotes for all segments in the report that need to be considered.
Most Violent Cities 2014-2018
Note that I only included cities where violent crime went up during the five year measurement period:
Observations-Violent Crime Rate Per 100,000 Population
Aurora CO usually does not come up in conversation about violent crime beyond the 2012 mass shooting, yet it has a 76.6 percent increase in the rate of violent crime.
It’s obvious that Aurora is not one of the most violent cities in the US (same for some other cities listed) but it does have the highest percentage increase.
Los Angeles has a 52.3 percent increase which is interesting because of criminal justice reform issues in California and considerable changes to its correctional system. There are two California cities on the list.
Anchorage AK has a 51.5 percent increase yet it’s the smallest populated city on the list.
Tulsa OK (violence up 32.3 percent) is another high ranking city that usually does not rise to the top of the list when discussing violent cities. It’s the same for Colorado Springs (up 21.2 percent) or Ft Wayne IN (up 21.2 percent) or Riverside, CA (up 17.6 percent) or many of the smaller cities on the list. The smaller cities (except Anchorage) seem to have smaller rates of violent crime.
St Louis, Detroit, Chicago, New Orleans, Dallas, Kansas City, Memphis, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Houston, and Denver are all expected participants when discussing rising crime.
Cities like Baltimore, Washington D.C., New York (the number of New York City shootings rose 28.8 percent in January. Assaults rose 7.9 percent) or Philadelphia (high rate of homicides) are not on the list above but are experiencing increasing forms of violence.
How Do These Numbers Compare to National Averages?
Have past record lows for violent crime ended? Possibly (per the National Crime Victimization Survey for 2018), but the bottom line is that violent and property crimes are still at record lows for the country and, generally speaking, have been decreasing for the last two decades except for recent years (since 2015) with mixed results from the two main Department of Justice sources.
The principal reason for any confusion is the increase in “all” violent crime as measured by the National Crime Survey (an increase in violent crime of 28 percent from 2015-2018), and measures of “reported” crime compiled from local law enforcement agencies via the FBI.
Per the FBI, violent crime increased in 2015 and 2016 but decreased slightly in 2017 (violence was essentially flat) and 2018 (a decrease of 3.3 percent). It decreased by 3.1 percent for the first half of 2019.
There have been additional increases since 2000; the rate of violent crime in the US increased in 2005 and 2006 (via FBI data) but the index returned to decreases in 2007.
Thus we have a fundamental question, which holds more importance, a 28 percent increase in all violent crime per the National Crime Survey (2015-2018) or a 3.3 percent decrease in 2018 and a 3.1 percent decrease for the first half of 2019 for reported crime from the FBI? See Crime in America.
Statement from the Bureau of Justice Statistics
“The tables published in “Offenses Known to Law Enforcement in Large Cities, 2018” enable users to access FBI reported crime data for large cities of 250,000 population or more. These same data are published by the FBI in the Crime in the United States publication and can be found in tables associated with the state in which the agency is located. Tables published here by BJS provide those large city crime data in a singular set of tabulations. In addition, the FBI make these data available at the agency level through the Crime Data Explorer, and BJS and the FBI make these data available through the online UCR Data Tool. BJS provided these tables for easier access to the public.”
See More
See more articles on crime and justice at Crime in America.
Most Dangerous Cities/States/Countries at Most Dangerous Cities.
US Crime Rates at Nationwide Crime Rates.
The Crime in America.Net RSS feed (https://crimeinamerica.net/?feed=rss2) provides subscribers with a means to stay informed about the latest news, publications and other announcements from the site.
Contact
Contact us at leonardsipes@gmail.com.
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