Highlights
Violent crime remains flat. Many cities continue to be plagued by violence.
78 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence a great deal or a fair amount.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of criminology and public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University.
Introduction
Did national crime totals for 2017 decline?
The short answer is no. With a decrease of 0.2 percent based on crimes reported to law enforcement for all of 2017, crime for the nation was essentially flat, FBI.
This site suggested the possibility of an increase based on data showing growth in firearm-related homicides (70.5 percent of murders) and the observation that homicides and overall violence are usually concurrent, Crime in America. Others suggested a decrease, Brennan Center. We were both wrong.
For an overview of crime in America for recent years, and for definitions of data used here, see Crime in America.
Is America Entering a New Era of Increasing Violence?
Possibly. Violent crime (and national fear of crime per Gallup) is increasing in some (not all) cities.
We predicted the increase for 2015 based on crimes reported to police, and we correctly predicted another increase in 2016. According to FBI data, it’s rare for the rate of violent crime to increase for one year only.
Preliminary data for the first six months of 2017, however, indicated a small decrease (0.8 percent) in violent crime.
For all of 2017, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation decreased 0.2 percent.
A decrease going from 0.8 percent to a reduction of 0.2 percent suggests the possibility of a future upward trend.
Similarities With 2014?
There are stark similarities with 2014 where decreases for the first half of 2014 for violent crime were greatly reduced in the full report.
Like 2017, the estimated number of violent crimes in the nation also decreased 0.2 percent for all of 2014.
This preceded two years of violent crime growth.
In 2017, the volume of aggravated assault and rape increased 1.0 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. Note that in 2014, aggravated assault and rapes also increased.
Thus, after two years of growth, violent crime totals are essentially flat for the nation while noting that we may be seeing a trend similar to 2014.
Media reports from a variety of cities in the US indicate growth in homicides and violent crime. Even in cities with reductions (i.e., Baltimore and others), the rate of violence is appalling.
Some Additional Thoughts
From The Marshall Project: Still no “American carnage.” Updated federal data compiled by the FBI tells us that violent crime overall dropped in 2017 from 2016, by one percent, even as the number of reported rapes rose by three percent.
The murder rate was down in Chicago and Baltimore but rose in Philadelphia and Washington. THE WASHINGTON POST
It’s more accurate to say crime leveled off in 2017. TWITTER
Attorney General Jeff Sessions is taking credit for the dip; nonsense, say justice advocates. REASON
From The Crime Report: When reported violent crime in the U.S. rose in 2015 and 2016 after many years of decline, advocates of tougher policing and harsher sentencing warned that rising crime threatened to wipe out hard-won gains in safety. Criminal justice reformers said the rise may merely be a blip in a long-term downward trend. Now, the FBI says violent crime went down last year. In a speech Monday to police leaders, Attorney General Jeff Sessions said, “Those are the kind of results you get when you support law enforcement. Those are the kind of results we get when we work together, ” reports Reason. He added, “If you want more shootings and more death, then listen to the ACLU, Black Lives Matter, or antifa. If you want public safety, then listen to the police professionals who have been studying this for 35 years.”
Ames Grawert of the Brennan Center for Justice says it was “galling to see” Sessions cite national crime data to support his position on policing. “Ascribing credit of any crime increase or decrease to a single year and a half of federal policy is just beyond belief,” he says. The FBI data showed that murder decreased eight percent in cities with more than 1 million people. “One would take this as rebuke to the ‘American carnage’ theory that cities are out of control…” he says.
A conservative criminal justice reformer said the new crime numbers reinforce the position that sentencing overhauls in red states have been largely successful in reducing crime. Mark Holden, the Koch network’s point man on criminal justice reform, said, “The reality is, data-driven prison and sentencing reforms, like those that have passed in places like Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina, reduce crime while giving people opportunities to transform their lives.”
Conclusion
Both the Attorney General taking credit and those suggesting sentencing reform (fewer people being in prison) as reasons for crime being flat borders on silly with the exception of a much-needed boost in support for law enforcement from AG Sessions.
There was growth in violence in 2015 and 2016. Looking at FBI data as to flat years preceding growth, plus the increasing numbers of firearm-related homicides, plus growth in violence in select cities, suggest that violent crime could increase once again.
Predicting the future of crime is always a daunting task that has fooled many.
78 percent of Americans worry about crime and violence a great deal or a fair amount, the same as health care, the number one issue-Gallup.
56 percent of Americans believe that crime needs to be reduced-Pew.
68 percent of Americans believe that crime is increasing-Gallup.
Two-thirds of gun owners say protection from crime is a major reason they own a gun-Pew, Crime in America.
With numbers like these, crime in America continues to be a top national concern.
Sources
Contacts
Contact us at leonardsipes@gmail.com.
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