Has Crime Decreased In Washington D.C. Since Trump’s Interventions?

Highlights

If you look at a recent CBS News story, the President’s anti-crime actions in Washington, D.C., are either widely supported or dismissed, depending on your political affiliation. We are in a cultural war over the deployment of troops and federal agents and perceptions of crime.

As in any war, both sides exaggerate.

In many American cities, people complain that wait times for a police officer to respond to a reported crime can take over an hour, if an officer appears at all. In Detroit, many claim that police response to property crimes is nonexistent. Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we have lost 25,000 police officers and employees.

So, regardless of your beliefs about crime in D.C. or elsewhere, cops not appearing would scare anyone; it becomes a de facto statement about how you feel about crime. Per the D.C. union (below), understaffing is severe in the nation’s capital. 

National Crime Statistics

About 38% of violent victimizations in urban areas were reported to police, which was lower than the percentages in suburban (43%) and rural (51%) areas, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ. Based on that data, whatever crime statistics you use for D.C. or any other urban area are a considerable undercount.

According to the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, violent crime increased in urban areas for its most recent yearly report in 2024.

 

Washington, D.C.

I worked in Washington, D.C. for 25 years as the senior specialist for crime prevention and statistics for the USDOJ’s clearinghouse, and then as the director of information services for the National Crime Prevention Council before eventually transitioning to a senior spokesperson role for a federal criminal justice agency.

I visited every part of the nation’s capital and spoke to hundreds of residents and community leaders. I found that fear of crime was considerable among residents. I have never seen a city where entire neighborhoods have bars on every door or window.

Reported crime (the majority of crime isn’t reported to law enforcement) in D.C. and other cities has decreased in recent years, giving D.C. and other targeted cities reasons to object to federal interventions of National Guard Troops and federal agents. Nevertheless, fear of crime remains high in D.C. and elsewhere, impacting a personal sense of safety and degrading the quality of life for many of its residents.

Crime In DC

• D.C. is among the higher-crime large cities in terms of violent crime, homicide rate, and robbery rate, but it is not at the top of the list.

• Its homicide rate (25.5 per 100,000) places it in the top 15 cities nationally. 

• For robbery, D.C. is critically high (3rd highest) among cities 50,000+ as of 2024.

• There are endless examples of robberies, homicides, and carjackings in D.C., mostly at the hands of juveniles and younger offenders

The Sources Below Provide Different Perspectives Regarding The President’s Actions

I analyzed crime statistics for decades, and the short answer regarding President Trump’s actions is yes, it’s working, and no, it’s too soon to tell. 

The Hill

President Trump’s decision this summer to assert federal control over the District of Columbia’s police force marked one of the boldest federal interventions in a major city’s public safety strategy in decades. His stated goal: to confront the violent crime surge that had long plagued the nation’s capital.

Supporters of the move argue that the results speak for themselves. In the month following the federal takeover, preliminary crime data from the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) reportedly showed sharp declines across nearly every major category.

Homicides — a grim barometer of public safety — fell by more than 60 percent compared to the month prior. Property crimes also dropped significantly: burglaries and thefts from vehicles decreased by over 40 percent, motor vehicle thefts declined by roughly 35 percent, and robberies were down by nearly 20 percent.

These reductions were observed across all seven police districts in the city, affecting both affluent neighborhoods and historically high-crime areas. Advocates credit tighter coordination among federal agencies, increased National Guard presence, and a more aggressive policing posture.

“Living in crime and danger is a choice, not an inevitability,” one administration official said. “The data shows what can happen when leadership and accountability replace excuses.”

The central question now is whether the District’s political leadership will continue these strategies once federal control ends — or revert to the policies that critics say allowed the crisis to worsen in the first place.

It’s Too Early To Judge The Impact Of The President’s Actions

Not everyone agrees that the drop in reported crime reflects a lasting or direct effect of the federal intervention.

Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, urges caution in concluding short-term trends. “The most common question I’ve been asked since mid-August has been some variation of, ‘what effect has the deployment of the National Guard and federal law enforcement had on D.C. crime?’” he said. “My answer pretty much every time has been: it’s too soon to say much with confidence.”

Crime, Asher notes, fluctuates for complex reasons that often have little to do with any single policy shift. “Trends can change suddenly for reasons that aren’t well understood,” he explained. “You generally need a longer timeframe to separate a real trend from normal variation.”

Asher points out that D.C. and other major cities were already seeing gradual declines in violent crime before the federal intervention. “Analyzing an event like this is especially tricky when crime is already trending downward,” he said. “How do you know whether it’s the policy or just a continuation of that trend?”

According to his early review of available data, there is some evidence of accelerated declines in shootings and certain property crimes, but little indication that overall violent crime has shifted dramatically. “It’s not clear whether these trends will continue, abate, or reverse,” he concluded. “Ultimately, figuring out whether any changes are real — and why — will take longer.”

A Developing Story

The D.C. experiment has reignited a national debate over the role of federal power in local policing. For supporters, it’s proof that decisive action can make cities safer. For skeptics, it’s a reminder that crime statistics — especially over short periods — can be misleading without deeper analysis.

Whether Washington’s current calm represents a turning point or a temporary dip remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: the eyes of policymakers across the country are watching what happens next in the nation’s capital and other cities.

What I can say is that the President’s actions are supported by D.C.’s Metropolitan Police Department’s union, who openly welcome the President’s interventions.

The DC Police Union

The DC Police Union, representing more than 3,000 officers of the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD),  issued a blistering condemnation of the dire conditions plaguing the department, driven by chronic mismanagement, neglect, and betrayal by city leadership. The MPD is crumbling under the weight of unprecedented staffing shortages, inhumane working conditions, radical partisan legislation, unrelenting crime spikes, and a leadership culture that prioritizes optics over accountability. 

Regardless of the false narrative that “crime is down,” the city continues to be plagued with crime and violence at a rate beyond the capabilities of these crippling staffing numbers.  Officers are forced to work over 2 million hours annually, equivalent to 1,000 full-time jobs, pushing them to the brink of exhaustion and compromising their ability to serve effectively.

Conclusions

From the perspective of the police officers working in Washington, D.C., and after decades of talking to D.C. residents about their crime and fear of crime concerns, it’s probable that the actions of the President are welcomed by many. 

However, it’s equally probable that the political leadership and some residents in the city see the President’s actions as an infringement of home rule and a violation of the right of elective representatives to govern themselves. 

Yet after attending multiple meetings about crime in the nation’s capital and additional cities, I never heard anyone stating that they were accepting or comfortable with the level of criminal activity in their neighborhoods or the lack of a police response.

Per the D.C. police union’s observations, additional resources are necessary. They sound exhausted from forced overtime because of staffing shortages. This alone may justify federal interventions.

As the President contemplates similar actions in other cities like Memphis, the eyes of the nation are fixed on the experience of Washington, D.C. With the accumulation of additional data, we will have an opportunity to better evaluate the impact.

For example, Memphis has one of the highest rates of violence in the country. Like D.C., Memphis police are understaffed. “The far larger impact undoubtedly comes from the deployment of around 1,500 other Federal personnel from more than a dozen agencies. This is a large deployment on paper considering that MPD reported having just under 2,000 officers in 2024…” 150 members of the National Guard were added in October.

Crime is down significantly since deployment, but that may be influenced by reporting practices. An early November PBS article reported that around 1,500 arrests had been made by Federal law enforcement in around 5 weeks. That’s a large figure given that MPD reported about 3,200 total arrests in October 2024. There was also a 33 percent increase in traffic stops in October, Jeff Asher.

But for D.C., the overall experience seems to be positive as to the enhanced safety of residents. D.C. police officers welcome the intervention, and I assume it’s the same in Memphis.

It’s a work in progress. 

ChatGPT

ChatGPT provided the crime statistics for D.C.

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