Observations
A small reduction in violent crime for the first six months of 2017 is good news, and we all hope it continues, but declaring that violent crime is declining or will decline for all of 2017 is a stretch at best.
When compared to twenty years of crime data, the 2017 numbers are mushy and somewhat confusing. We try to offer some context as to what the numbers mean.
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Thirty-five years of speaking for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Post-Masters’ Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University.
Article
The FBI recently announced a reduction in violent crime of 0.8 percent for crime in the US for the first half of 2017.
Murder increased 1.5 percent, robberies decreased 2.2 percent and aggravated assaults were flat (0.1 percent decrease) see FBI.
The Silly Season
Upon the announcement, the Attorney General declared that the reductions were the result of the Trump administration’s enhanced efforts to combat crime. Left of center groups like the Brennan Center declared that this proves that the increase in crime is a myth. Both are injecting ideology into a discussion that should be free of politics.
Long Range Data from the FBI
It’s always useful to look at long-range trends to get a sense as to what the future could hold. Twenty years of comparison data from the FBI (below) indicate:
For the vast majority of the years covered, violent crime and homicides tracked in the same direction. It’s very rare (happened once comparing 2002-2003) for violent crime to decrease while homicides increased. Homicides have always been a historical indicator as to overall violent crime.
Violent crime decreased 0.8 percent for the first half of 2017 (a very small reduction). There were only three years where there were decreases of less than 0.8 percent and in all three, homicides concurrently decreased.
The decrease in robberies was small based on the historical data. There are only six years out of twenty where the decreases were smaller.
Aggravated Assaults are, by far, the number pushing overall violent crime in one direction or another. For the vast majority of years, if there are increases or decreases in overall violent crime, one tracks the other. There are only two years where violent crime was up and aggravated assaults were down. There was one year where violent crime was down and aggravated assaults went up.
Six Months Versus Twelve Months
Increases or decreases in crime for the first half of the year are not necessarily an indication as to how the entire year will play out. Aggravated assault and rapes increased in 2014 while overall violent crime remained flat (tiny decrease) compared to 2013.
The FBI stated that the decrease in violent crime went from 4.6 percent in the first six months of 2014 to a 1.2 percent decrease for all of 2014, thus a considerable difference between the two six month measurement periods. The same could apply to the 2017 data, especially when the initial reduction is very small.
Mushy Numbers
Thus the 2017 data seems confusing/mushy with violent crime down 0.8 percent but with increases in homicides and aggravated assaults flat.
The data for the first half of 2017 are fluid thus indicating that there are factors at play that is keeping the violent crime picture dynamic with the possibility of increases or decreases for the entire year.
A small reduction in violent crime for the first six months of 2017 is obviously good news, and we all hope it continues, but declaring that violent crime is declining or will decline for all of 2017 is a stretch at best.
Other Data Disagrees-Gun Deaths Up 12 Percent in 2017
Gun deaths are up more than 12 percent in the first 200 days of 2017 compared with last year, reports the Washington Post. Firearm injuries are up nearly 8 percent. The number of children under the age of 12 shot by a gun has increased by 16 percent, while instances of defensive gun use are up nearly 30 percent. President Trump promised in his inaugural address that “American carnage stops right here and stops right now.” But data from the Gun Violence Archive, a non-profit that tracks shootings, show that the carnage has only gotten worse. In the first 200 days of 2014, the Archive’s team of researchers tallied 6,206 gun deaths, not counting suicides. Three years later that figure has jumped by well over one-third, to 8,539 fatalities.
The report above is not alone in suggesting that violent crime remains high. Media reports on this site and others suggest that violent crime rates and totals in many cities continue to increase in 2017.
Historical Data from the FBI
Source
Contact us at crimeinamerica@gmail.com.
Media on deadline, contact leonardsipes@gmail.com
My book: “Amazon Hot New Release”- “A Must Have Book,” Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization available at Amazon
This is an ad-free website.