Are Americans Stupid When It Comes To Crime?

Highlights

This article is available as a YouTube podcast.

Crimes reported to law enforcement are down throughout the country, yet fear of crime remains remarkably high.

Are Americans delusional (or stupid) “or” do they know something the rest of us (including the research community) do not?

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Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.

Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.

Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.

Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.

Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization,” available at Amazon and additional bookstores.

Crime in America.Net-“Trusted Crime Data, Made Clear.”

Quoted by The Associated Press (multiple times), USA Today, A&E Television, the nationally syndicated Armstrong Williams Television Show (30 times), ABC News, Inside Edition Television, Oxygen and allied publications, Vox, Forbes, Newsweek, The Economist, The Toronto Sun, The Readers Digest, The Chicago Tribune, The Daily Beast, The Huffington Post, The Baltimore Sun, The Boston Herald, The Capital Gazette, MSN, AOL (multiple times), Yahoo, JAMA, News Break, US News And World Report, The Hill (newspaper of Congress), Best Life, Department of Justice documents, multiple US Supreme Court briefs, C-SPAN, the National Institute of Health, college and university online libraries, multiple books and journal articles, The National Institute of Corrections, The Office of Juvenile Justice And Delinquency Prevention, The Bureau of Justice Assistance, Gartner Consulting, The Maryland Crime Victims Resource Center, Law.Com, The Marshall Project, The Heritage Foundation via Congressional testimony, Law Enforcement Today, Law Officer.Com, Blue Magazine, Citizens Behind The Badge, Police 1, American Peace Officer, Corections.Com, Prison Legal News, the Journal of Offender Monitoring, Yomiuri Shimbun (Asia’s largest newspaper), LeFigaro (France’s oldest newspaper), Homeland Security Digital Library, The ABA Journal, The Daily Express (UK), The Harvard Political Review, The Millennial Source, The Federalist Society, Lifewire, The Beccaria Portal On Crime (Europe), The European Journal of Criminology, American Focus and many additional TV stations and publications.

A comprehensive overview of crime for recent years is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.

Article

So we have significant drops in crimes reported to law enforcement throughout the country. Cities are reporting considerable reductions in homicides and shootings.

There is no question that this is good news.

Then why are Americans reporting significant fear of crime? Numerous articles in mainstream national media publications (NPR, NBC, The Washington Post, Scientific American, and many television segments on CNN, MSNBC, and ABC News) have presented the common narrative that fear of crime greatly exceeds actual risk. In essence, they suggest that Americans are somewhat delusional when it comes to crime.

Are they? Or do they know something the rest of us, including researchers, do not?

California

What happens when one of the most liberal states in the country expresses significant concerns about crime?

LA Times: Homicides in Los Angeles are down to levels not seen since the 1960s. Neighborhoods once awash in gang violence now sometimes go weeks, even months, without a shooting. And the follow-home robberies and street takeovers that captured the public’s attention in recent years have largely subsided.

By many measures, the city is safer than it has been in generations — and yet voters following L.A.’s hotly contested mayoral race might think the opposite. Crime remains a significant issue in Los Angeles and the state.

CBS News: View the video from CBS about crime and multiple residents claiming that crime is out of control. Sixty-seven percent of likely voters claim that their concerns about lawlessness in Los Angeles and California will affect their vote. Those interviewed say that their city (and state) are unsafe.

It’s Not Just California

I read multiple sources about crime in America every day, and the same sentiments are expressed by citizens throughout the country.

Indianapolis: Rick Snyder, president of the Indianapolis police union, says criminals are “laughing at what we are doing here” with curfews. He blames the juvenile gun problem, like all other problems, on what he calls a revolving door of criminals enabled by Marion County Prosecutor Ryan Mears and the courts.

“Central Indiana officials will meet multiple times to discuss crime and public safety, a discussion prompted by social media posts following a carjacking in Carmel.

“Crime takes a toll on every community,” reads a joint statement from Indianapolis Mayor Joe Hogsett and Carmel Mayor Sue Finkam issued on the morning of June 5. “Individuals who commit crimes often move among jurisdictions, creating challenges that no single community can solve alone.”

Fox News: Frustrated Seattle residents say their once-vibrant neighborhood has become a nightly nightmare of roaring engines, fears of gunfire and massive street takeovers, warning that the chaos has reached a breaking point as city leaders struggle to contain the growing problem.

Fox News: At Cottage Grove Walgreens in Chicago, the theft was off the charts. By local reports, the store lost more than a million dollars to theft in a single year. Walgreens poured roughly $400,000 into security guards at that one location and still couldn’t stop the shoplifting, the brazen grab-and-runs and the threats to staff. All the while, honest customers, especially the elderly, came in less because they didn’t feel safe. When you combine high theft, high security and insurance costs, and falling sales, the math stops working. In a capitalist country, no corporation can ignore that kind of math forever.

Why Are People So Concerned?

I could post hundreds of additional examples from just about every city in the country. The question is, if crime is plummeting in cities, why are people so concerned?

Is Crime Really Plummeting?

Crime statistics for the US add to the confusion. Endless mayors, advocates, and government officials are claiming that their interventions reduced crime in 2025 and 2026, regardless of the lack of independent, well-researched, and replicated evidence.

The FBI states that violent and property crimes have decreased beginning in 2023 (3 percent) and 2024 (4.5 percent). The latest data from the FBI’s website states that crime continues to fall.

But per the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics 50-year-old National Crime Victimization Survey (what the US Census and USDOJ call the premier method of counting crimes in America), we had a large increase in rates of violent crime in 2022 (44 percent). Rates have remained almost unchanged for 2023 and the most recent full report for 2024.

The National Crime Victimization Survey states that urban violence increased in its latest 2024 report. Independent analysts say that violent and property crimes are falling considerably in cities based on crimes reported to law enforcement.

Thus, any analysis of factors contributing to violent or property crime is confounded by our struggle to judge the effectiveness of interventions or to assess our personal safety. If we can’t agree on whether crime is up or down, how can we judge the effectiveness of interventions?

You can make any case about crime you want based on USDOJ data. Different sources allow for differing interpretations.

Fear Of Crime

Then we need to recognize that the vast majority of the American public expresses an excessive or moderate concern or fear of crime. However, those expressing the highest levels of concern have declined a bit from previous record highs.

Regardless, the high level of fear stems from a variety of factors, including personal experiences with crime, the experiences of friends and neighbors, media reports, and signs of disorder.

The Majority Of Crime Is Not Reported

The majority of all crime is not reported to law enforcement. Approximately 30 percent of property crimes are reported, and property crime makes up approximately 70 percent of all crime. About half of violent crimes are reported, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

There are 120 million porch package thefts in the US. The survey indicated that there are far more porch-pirate thefts than the total number of property crimes reported to the FBI. There are many additional examples of increases in property crimes I could provide.

As to violent crimes, the Bureau of Justice Statistics states that 13 percent of sexual assaults are reported in urban areas. Domestic violence is up. Estimates indicate that around one in every 38 Black men and one in every 287 Black women will die at the hands of a firearm.

Conclusions

So are Americans delusional (or stupid) about their chances for criminal victimization, as multiple media articles suggest?

If one depends on the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, there is ample evidence that the rates of violent crime are at record-high levels.

If one depends on crime reported to law enforcement, we need to understand that the vast majority of crime is not reported to the police. We’re not getting the full picture of criminal victimization regardless of the source.

Yet no one disputes the immense drop in homicides and shootings, some based on national sources beyond reported crimes.

Yes, the literature states that fear of crime depends on an endless number of variables beyond crime statistics, like litter, graffiti, news reports, or the accounts of friends and neighbors. The use of home and personal security devices is exploding. Firearm possession (based on self-protection) has increased tremendously.

Based on hundreds of recent media reports from every large city in America, crime and fear of crime remain significant issues. There is an obvious disconnect between what’s being reported and what’s happening in the lives of urban residents.

Regardless of how hard mainstream media tries to suggest that Americans are not being rational when it comes to crime, it’s highly likely that they see the potential for danger for themselves, their families, and their communities.

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