Highlights
Compared with just a few years ago, fewer teenagers are:
- Drinking alcohol.
- Binge drinking.
- Smoking cigarettes.
- Vaping nicotine.
- Using marijuana.
- Beginning to use alcohol or drugs.
- Developing substance use disorders.
- Experiencing major depressive episodes.
- Thinking about or attempting suicide.
Young adults (ages 18-25) generally showed similar improvements.
The data from this article and a new report from the Wall Street Journal on the declining percentage of youth in cities “may” provide a partial explanation for reductions in reported crime.
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New Data-Wall Street Journal
Criminology 101: The number and percentage of youth in cities affect crime.
Per a recent article in the Wall Street Journal: “America’s Big Cities Are Rapidly Losing Kids.” “With the nation’s fertility rate at record lows, the number of children under 18 is falling across the U.S. The decline is especially pronounced in big cities, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis.”
“The number of children under 18 living in big U.S. cities is down 6% in the past decade, the Journal found, compared with a 1% decline nationwide. The drop is especially stark among families with little kids: The number of children under age 5 in big cities fell 15%, compared with a drop of 7% nationwide. Even cities that are gaining population are losing children.”
The data from the article below and the notes above “may” provide a partial explanation for the reduction of reported crime in many urban areas.
Article
There’s good news from the federal government regarding the behaviour of young people. It may have an impact on current and future dysfunction and criminality.
I’m reminded of a professor’s statement from my first criminology class after leaving law enforcement, “The police and the justice system do not control crime. Whether people engage in violence, use hard drugs, beat their wives, or buy stolen goods is a personal and community values decision.
Society and communities control crime far more than the government.
Most people working in the justice system recognize that their efforts, as commendable as they are, cannot change the underlying behaviors and life circumstances that contribute to crime. We can’t negate questionable values. We don’t control life histories. We usually deal with the aftermath.
And obviously, just because there is progress regarding young people’s drug and alcohol use and mental health issues doesn’t necessarily translate into later or continued connections to crime.
But it’s good news “if” it continues. Data indicates that early decisions not to engage in drugs, alcohol, or crime tend to continue over time.
Drug and alcohol use is heavily connected to criminal or dysfunctional activity. No, it obviously doesn’t mean that your child or young adult using alcohol or marijuana will lead to criminal activity. And no, it doesn’t mean that mental health episodes lead to inappropriate behavior.
Emotional disorders and substance abuse are fairly common events in the lives of many people who, as adults, wouldn’t dream of engaging in criminal activity.
Child Abuse
But there are events like child abuse and neglect that are common among people coming into the justice system.
Numerous studies have found extraordinarily high rates of childhood abuse, neglect, violence, and trauma among people in the justice system. While estimates vary considerably depending on the study and the population examined, the relationship is unmistakable.
The rates of traumatic brain injury, PTSD, and being victims of violence and sexual abuse as children by someone they know are well established. Some (many?) parents simply do not know how to love, respect, discipline, and raise children.
Communities contribute to the violence and dysfunction. And abused young people from these backgrounds are disproportionately represented within the justice system.
If there is even a glimmer of hope that young people’s use of alcohol or drugs is decreasing, or reductions in mental health episodes, there may be reasons for long-term encouragement.
New Federal Research
New research represents results from the 2021 to 2025 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health prepared for the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Please note that some of the measured categories did not decrease or changed marginally. The charts within the report linked above are fairly easy to read, and those interested should spend some time reading the data.
The Associated Press summarized the latest findings, acknowledging that:
Fewer adolescents aged 12 to 17 reported using tobacco, alcohol, marijuana, and binge drinking in the previous month.
And in the past year, fewer in that age group reported:
- Illicit drug and marijuana use
- Starting drinking alcohol, vaping, or using marijuana
- Substance, alcohol, or drug use disorders
Adolescents also saw declining trends for major depressive episodes, and fewer reported serious thoughts of suicide, making a suicide plan, and attempting suicide.
Young adults aged 18 to 25 saw similarly favorable trends.
The federal government’s latest survey of mental health and substance use contains encouraging news.
Compared with just a few years ago, fewer teenagers are:
- Drinking alcohol.
- Binge drinking.
- Smoking cigarettes.
- Vaping nicotine.
- Using marijuana.
- Beginning to use alcohol or drugs.
- Developing substance use disorders.
- Experiencing major depressive episodes.
- Thinking about or attempting suicide.
Young adults (ages 18-25) generally showed similar improvements.
This doesn’t mean America’s problems have disappeared. Millions still struggle with addiction and mental illness, and most people who need treatment still don’t receive it. But compared with the difficult years following COVID, many indicators are moving in the right direction.
Why This Matters to Crime
Less Alcohol Use Should Mean Less Crime
Alcohol is one of the strongest behavioral predictors of crime. Decades of research have linked excessive alcohol use to:
- Violent assaults
- Domestic violence
- Homicide
- Disorderly conduct
- Vandalism
- Drunk driving
- Sexual assault
- Arrests for public order offenses
Alcohol lowers inhibitions, increases impulsive behavior, and contributes to aggression. Therefore, if fewer young people are drinking, and especially binge drinking, that removes one of the largest contributors to violent offending.
It would be surprising if sustained reductions in alcohol use did not eventually contribute to lower crime rates.
Fewer New Drug Users Could Mean Less Criminality
Many chronic offenders first engage in delinquent behavior during adolescence.
When fewer teenagers begin using drugs:
- Fewer develop addictions
- Fewer enter illegal drug markets
- Fewer commit crimes to support addictions
- Fewer become involved with drug trafficking networks
That doesn’t eliminate crime, but it reduces one important pathway into chronic offending.
Better Mental Health Can Reduce Justice System Contact
Everyone in the justice system understands that mental illness alone does not cause crime. Most people with mental illness are never arrested and are far more likely to be victims than offenders.
However, untreated serious mental illness, especially when combined with substance abuse, can increase police contacts, emergency interventions, jail admissions, homelessness, and repeat justice involvement.
If fewer adolescents experience:
- Major depression
- Suicidal behavior
- Severe emotional distress
then fewer may eventually require crisis intervention from police or the courts.
Cautions
The findings do not mean:
- Crime will automatically decline
- Substance use is the only driver of crime
- Mental illness causes criminal behavior
- Every reduction in alcohol use produces an equal reduction in crime
Crime is influenced by many additional factors:
- Economic conditions
- Demographics
- Neighborhood values and conditions
- Family instability
- Educational opportunities
- What government does or does not do
The report identifies encouraging trends—not guaranteed future crime reductions.
Bullet Summary of the SAMHSA Report
The major findings include:
Adolescents (12–17)
- Alcohol use declined.
- Binge drinking declined.
- Cigarette smoking declined.
- Marijuana use declined.
- Nicotine vaping declined.
- Initiation of alcohol use declined.
- Initiation of marijuana use declined.
- Initiation of vaping declined.
- Illicit drug use declined.
- Alcohol use disorder declined.
- Drug use disorder declined.
- Substance use disorder declined.
- Major depressive episodes declined.
- Serious thoughts of suicide declined.
- Suicide planning declined.
- Suicide attempts declined.
Young Adults (18–25)
- Similar improvements occurred across many substance use measures.
- Several mental health indicators improved.
- Some reductions occurred in substance use disorders.
Remaining Challenges
Despite the positive trends:
About 45 million Americans still have a substance use disorder.
More than 80% of those needing substance use treatment did not receive it.
Nearly one in five adolescents still reports moderate or severe anxiety symptoms.
More than half of Americans age 12 or older used alcohol, tobacco, nicotine vaping products, or illicit drugs during the previous month.
Conclusions
I interviewed a woman for a podcast who committed a homicide and took full responsibility for her crime. She was among three other women caught up in the justice system. All four stated that they were sexually abused by family members or people they knew as children. All struggled with little love or guidance from their parents. “Exactly what do you expect from us?” one asked. “Do you really believe that people from our backgrounds are going to grow up to be productive citizens?”
That’s the heart and soul of this discussion. We within law enforcement and the justice system can’t change all of these experiences. We cannot stop behavior we don’t witness or that is unreported. Yet the irrational behavior of so many people we encounter may be (and probably is) explained by the issues presented above.
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