Per Five Countries-Crime May Be Shifting Towards Fraud

Highlights

 

Analysis

I wrote in 2025, Do Crime Rates Rise and Fall Together Across Countries?

This was the theme of a criminology class where the professor stated that there are strong similarities in Western industrialized countries regarding crime.

Simply put, crime trends and characteristics seem to rise and fall in unison worldwide for Western industrialized countries. There may be differences in the statistics, but the trends were mostly similar.

What Causes Crime?

What causes crime to rise and fall? There are global similarities that impact crime, such as the percentage of young people in the population, access to the dark web, poverty, economies, aging societies, police strategies, drug overdose deaths, technology (i.e., home and business security equipment), plus many other factors such as the impact of GLP drugs on impulsive behavior, social media, AI, and the dramatic decline in the use of alcohol.

The crime question also acknowledges another principle of criminology: society does more to control crime than the justice system. Most violent crime happens between people who know each other, often out of sight of law enforcement. If communities or societies tolerate violence or the use of hard drugs or the purchase of stolen goods or domestic violence, there is little the police can do beyond responding to incidents.

Are there similarities in crime common to different countries? The short answer is that they exist with exceptions.

What I Used For This Analysis

We have two principal measures of crime for the cited countries: events reported to law enforcement and national crime surveys. 

The Intricacies of Crime Surveys

In the US, we have the National Crime Victimization Survey from the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics plus crimes reported to local law enforcement as recorded by the FBI.

Recognizing that the average person doesn’t have a clue as to what’s contained in the 50-year-old US National Crime Victimization Survey, it’s difficult to explain them all.  For example, there are countries with continuous yearly surveys and one (Canada) that does one every three years beginning in 2025 (it used to be every five years).

It’s beyond the scope of this article to compare the methodologies of the five countries, other than noting that the US survey is undergoing a routine instrument redesign (it’s been changed before). All surveys go through a review of their methodologies from time to time.

Countries can measure crimes differently.

Common Lessons

What I try to do is establish common lessons from all five surveys, plus police reports, from the US, the UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

A Summary of Crime in the US

Reported violent crime numbers offered by the FBI decreased approximately 3 to 4.5 percent in 2023 and 2024 in yearly official reports. It decreased by 9.3 percent in 2025. Decreases continued in 2026; see here. 

The National Crime Victimization Survey from the USDOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics states (through independent analysts) that there was a 44 percent increase in the rates of violent crime in 2022, and rates remained similar in 2023 and 2024. 2025 NCVS data will be out soon.

It’s the largest increase in violent crime I’ve seen in decades of writing about crime.

Per Gallup, we in the US were at a record fear of crime, but it’s decreased over the last three years.

Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, 30 percent of property crimes are reported to law enforcement, and about 50 percent of violent crimes are recorded.

What Do All Five Countries Have in Common?

Similarities emerge when we look at the United States and four other countries. It’s important to recognize that countries collect crime data using different categories and methodologies. They also use different reporting periods. 

1. Crime Has Generally Declined, But the Results Are Inconsistent

The United States experienced a historic decline in reported violent and property crime in recent years, particularly in 2025. The FBI reported that violent crime declined 9.3% in 2025—the largest year-to-year decline in violent crime since the FBI began estimating crime trends in 1936. 

However, the U.S. National Crime Victimization Survey tells a completely different story. NCVS violent victimization increased dramatically in 2022. The rate was 23.5 violent victimizations per 1,000 persons age 12 or older in 2022, compared with 16.5 in 2021. The rate subsequently remained statistically similar in 2023 and 2024. In 2024, the rate was 23.3 per 1,000. The latest published NCVS data are for 2024.

England and Wales also illustrate the difference between victimization surveys and police-recorded crime.

The Crime Survey for England and Wales estimated approximately 9.6 million crime incidents in the year ending March 2026, with no statistically significant change from the previous year (similar to the US experience). The survey also estimated approximately 4.5 million fraud incidents. These are survey estimates, not crimes recorded by police.

Police in England and Wales recorded approximately 5.2 million crimes in the year ending March 2026, excluding fraud and computer misuse. That represented a 1% decline from the previous year, when approximately 5.3 million crimes were recorded. However, the police-recorded total was substantially higher than the 3.6 million recorded in the year ending March 2015.

Policing Insight provides an interesting perspective on UK crime; just note that their multi-decade analysis can be misleading. You can prove anything if you are willing to pick a decades-old starting point.  

Australia’s victimization survey shows major declines in physical and threatened assault over the longer term, while robbery remains relatively low.

Its police-recorded crime statistics present a more complicated picture. In 2025, robbery declined 8% and sexual assault declined slightly. Other theft declined 2%, its first decline in five years. At the same time, motor-vehicle theft increased 2% and reached its highest level since 2008.

New Zealand’s victimization rate, based on its national crime survey, declined from 30% of adults in 2018 to 28% in 2025. The Ministry of Justice says this was the lowest level since the survey began.

The police-recorded data tell a different story. Police-recorded victimizations increased substantially between 2021 and 2025, although they declined during the most recent two years.

Canada provides another example of the difference between survey and police data. Its police-reported crime rate declined in 2025 by 2.4% from 2024. The rate also declined in 2024, but police-reported crime had increased in 2022 and 2023. Canada’s Crime Severity Index followed a similar pattern, increasing before declining in the most recent two years.

Canada’s national victimization survey presents a different limitation. Its most recent completed national survey was conducted in 2019, so current multi-year victimization-survey results are not yet available. The 2025 Survey on Canadians’ Safety was conducted from June 2025 through February 2026, but the results aren’t yet available. 

Simularities

The details and directions differ among countries, but several broad similarities emerge, suggesting a decline.

Crime statistics are not a single measurement. Police-recorded crime and victimization surveys can produce very different pictures of what is happening in society.

1. Most Crimes Are Not Reported To Law Enforcement

This may be the most important lesson for the justice system. Canada found that only 29% of measured victimization came to police attention. New Zealand has similarly found that only a minority of crime incidents are reported. In the United States, fewer than half of violent victimizations in the 2024 National Crime Victimization Survey were reported to police. It’s 30 percent for property crimes, and property crimes make up the great bulk of what we call crime.

England and Wales find particularly low reporting for some types of fraud. Australia explicitly describes its victimization survey as a means of measuring crime that is not reported to or detected by police.

Therefore, an international principle emerges: police-recorded crime is a measure of crime known to police—not a complete measure of crime occurring in society. It is surprisingly easy to forget in public discussions.

2. The Nature of Crime Is Changing

There is another striking similarity. As traditional crime has declined, fraud and cybercrime have become increasingly important.

Scams in the US are at a record high. Yet most victims get no help, and some end up losing even more.

Criminals have always sought to minimize their risk and seek maximum gain (i.e., the 83 percent decrease in bank robberies). Why engage in a dangerous street robbery when profitable fraud can be done from the comfort of your home with the assistance of the dark web?  With the vast majority of frauds not reported (2 to 21 percent depending on the source) to the police and limited resources within law enforcement, fraud seems like a safe no-brainer for the criminal population.

England and Wales recorded approximately 4.5 million fraud incidents in its most recent survey estimate. Canada found 2.5 million fraud victims in 2019 (latest survey). Australia’s fraud victimization rate increased dramatically over the past decade.

The United States has substantial identity-theft and fraud victimization, although the National Crime Victimization Survey does not provide a directly comparable annual fraud measure. However, Gallup does. 

New Zealand has substantial fraud victimization but has found a recent decline.

The lesson is therefore not: “fraud is increasing everywhere.”

Fraud and cybercrime have become much more important components of the crime problem in many countries, even as many traditional crimes have declined.

That may be one of the most important changes in the nature of crime.

3. Crime And Fear Of Crime Are Different Things

The international evidence also cautions against assuming that fear of crime follows the actual crime rate. People can believe crime is increasing while victimization is declining. They can be concerned about crime nationally while feeling safe in their own neighborhoods. Criminological data suggests that citizens see and experience signs of disorder in their neighborhoods or the larger community regardless of statistics.

New Zealand provides a particularly good example. Its survey found substantially greater concern about interpersonal violence as a national issue than concern about interpersonal violence in people’s own neighborhoods (the same as the US).

Canada’s 2019 survey found that 78% of Canadians were very or somewhat satisfied with their personal safety from crime, while only 19% believed crime in their neighborhood had increased during the preceding five years.

According to Gallup, the majority of Americans express fear or concern about crime. Americans’ concern about crime can change considerably even when measured crime is moving in the opposite direction. For justice professionals, this distinction matters. A community can experience historically low crime and still have high concerns about crime.

4. The United States Is Unusual—But Not Necessarily For the Reason People Think

The American situation is often presented as a choice between two competing record-breaking statistics: one increasing and one decreasing.

The FBI says crime is declining considerably. The National Crime Victimization Survey says violent victimization remains considerably above the unusually low pandemic-era levels. Rates of violence increased 44 percent in 2022, and rates of violence remained similar for 2023 and 2024. The new National Crime Victimization Survey will be out soon.

Which one is right? The answer is that both can be right. The FBI is measuring crime that becomes known to law enforcement. The NCVS measures victimization, including incidents that never reach the police.

5. The More Interesting Question Is Why the Two Measures Can Move Differently

That is a question for criminologists, statisticians, and justice professionals, not something that can be answered simply by declaring one measure “correct.”

And this is where international comparisons become valuable.

The United States is not the only country with a gap between victimization and police statistics. The gap is an international phenomenon. What is unusual about America is the size and recent direction of the divergence in some categories, particularly violent crime.

What Should We Learn From All This?

Perhaps the most important lesson is very simple:

Don’t ask, “What is the crime rate?” Ask, “Which crime measure are we talking about?” A police statistic answers one question. A victimization survey answers another. Neither is inherently “the real crime rate.”

Just note that the US Census and the Bureau of Justice Statistics (and endless criminologists) call the US survey the premier source of crime statistics in the US. There are endless challenges with crimes reported to law enforcement beyond the fact that most crimes are not reported.

Consider homicide. Victimization surveys are poorly suited to measuring homicide because the victim is no longer available to answer the survey. Police statistics are indispensable.

Now consider sexual assault. A victimization survey can identify incidents that were never reported to police. Police statistics alone will miss much of that victimization. Per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, only 13 percent of urban sexual assaults are reported.

Now consider fraud. The differences can become even larger because victims may not recognize the crime, may not know where to report it, may suffer little financial loss, may be embarrassed, or may believe that reporting will accomplish nothing.

That is why countries increasingly need multiple measures.

The Worldwide Crime Story Is More Similar Than We Think

Looking across the United States, England and Wales, Canada, New Zealand and Australia produces an important lesson. These countries have different governments, police organizations, populations, cultures and statistical systems. Yet many have experienced similar developments:

Traditional crime has generally declined over the long term in many of these countries, although the pattern is not uniform.

A substantial amount of victimization never reaches police.

Fraud and cybercrime have become increasingly important.

Victimization surveys reveal crime that police statistics cannot see.

Public concern about crime does not necessarily move in lockstep with victimization statistics.

And there is one additional lesson that may be particularly important for American justice professionals.

When someone says that crime is “up” or “down,” the next question should be: “According to which measurement system?” That isn’t an academic distinction. It can change the conclusion.

A country can have declining police-reported crime while its victimization survey remains elevated. Another country can have declining victimization while police-recorded crime increases because reporting or recording practices change. A third country can have declining traditional crime while fraud increases.

All three things can happen simultaneously.

Fraud

Fraud seems to be an increasing part of the overall international crime discussion.

The FBI has included fraud offenders on its most wanted list. The FBI put out a notice that over 150 million driver’s licences and IDs are now being sold on the dark web. The Wall Street Journal states that fake sex related photos and emails are affecting thousands of families. The Street reports that retail and commercial fraud is also rising, with phone scams (69%), loyalty fraud (51%), and gift card theft or fraud (42%) increasing. We know that kits for fraud are being sold on the dark web, allowing anyone to engage in a new form of crime.

International Fraud Reports

INTERPOL released its 2026 Global Financial Fraud Threat Assessment in March 2026:

• Financial fraud is among the top global crime threats.
• Fraud-related INTERPOL notices increased by 54% from 2024 to 2025.
• The report identifies business email compromise, advance-payment fraud, impersonation fraud, investment fraud, identity fraud, and romance fraud among major threats.
• It says AI-enhanced fraud is becoming substantially more profitable and sophisticated.

Conclusions—Crime May Be Shifting

Per Gallup, the FBI, and the Bureau of Justice Statistics, fraud, identity theft, and computer crimes have become major components of the crime problem; see Per Gallup-Identity Theft And Scams Happen Far More Often Than All FBI Reported Crimes.

But it’s not just fraud. Independent analysts are seeing huge increases in US retail theft, cargo theft, porch piracy, and other categories of property crime.

The data suggest that the nature of crime is shifting as new opportunities present themselves.

One of the most important criminological overviews of our time is Ken Burns’s film “Prohibition,” where new crimes were invented by the government, organized crime firmly took root, and the majority of Americans were suddenly willing to engage in an illegal act.

It’s my opinion that crime is not declining; it’s shifting. It always does.

Appendix—Names of Crime Surveys

The United States calls its survey the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).

England and Wales use the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW).

Canada has used the General Social Survey on Canadians’ Safety (Victimization).

New Zealand uses the New Zealand Crime and Victims Survey (NZCVS).

Australia conducts the Crime Victimisation Survey (yes, it’s spelled correctly), along with separate surveys examining personal safety, fraud and cybercrime.