Will Trump Change National Crime Statistics? Are We Getting Accurate Crime Data?

Highlights

This article is available as a YouTube podcast.

Per an executive order, President Trump wants to “increase the investment in and collection, distribution, and uniformity of crime data across jurisdictions.”

Crime numbers based on local and state police dashboards suggest that crime is down considerably.

Some doubt that the numbers accurately gauge a city’s or state’s safety. Some doubt that the numbers recorded are accurate. It’s possible that cities are not reporting all the crime data they collect.

Some insist that crime is down considerably. But cybercrime in all its forms is up 33 percent in one year, according to the FBI. Rates of violence increased by 44 percent for the National Crime Victimization Survey’s latest full report.

How can anyone make sense of crime in America? Is it time to change how we collect and present crime statistics?

Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention and Statistics for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former police officer. Retired federal senior spokesperson.

Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Produced successful state anti-crime media campaigns.

Thirty-five years of directing award-winning (50+) public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed thousands of times by every national news outlet, often with a focus on crime statistics and research. Created the first state and federal podcasting series. Produced a unique and emulated style of government proactive public relations.

Certificate of Advanced Study-The Johns Hopkins University.

Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.

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A comprehensive overview of crime for recent years is available at Violent and Property Crime Rates In The U.S.

Background: President Donald Trump’s New Executive Order On Policing

The president’s executive order on crime statistics, “Increase the investment in and collection, distribution, and uniformity of crime data across jurisdictions.”

What’s below provides context and analysis of the current state of crime data and the President’s executive order.

The Marshall Project: “More money to collect crime data. Trump’s order pledged to spend more money on collecting and standardizing crime data. Crime statistics became the source of a clash between Trump and law enforcement leaders during his 2024 campaign, with some police chiefs disputing Trump’s claims that crime was “out of control” in cities across America.”

The Marshall Project: Monday’s executive order on policing included a mandate to “increase the investment in and collection, distribution, and uniformity of crime data across jurisdictions.” Project 2025 — a conservative policy blueprint for the Trump presidency — wrote favorably of the Justice Department’s National Crime Victimization Survey, saying officials “should prioritize and sufficiently fund it.”

This will be interesting.

Article

Figuring out American crime statistics isn’t for the faint of heart. We have record increases in violence (44 percent) via the latest report (2023) from the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, while the FBI’s latest report offers a three percent decrease.

We have a record fear of crime, according to Gallup.

However, there are reports of big drops in crimes reported (most are not) to law enforcement through police crime dashboards.

The FBI just reported a 33 percent increase in identity theft.

How can anyone make sense of crime in America? Reading crime data is guaranteed to give anyone whiplash. Per one analyst, the drops in city crime are enormous.

City Crime

I read about considerable drops in “reported” city crime daily. Cities are taking credit for the decrease through programs (i.e., police tactics, violence interrupters). On the surface, it’s good news.

But, and there’s always a “but,” there are a ton of citizens and those in law enforcement who are not buying their “reported” city’s crime statistics. Regardless of the data, they believe their city still has a considerable crime problem. Five or ten percent drops seem to be meaningless to many if the perception of danger or disorder remains.

Analyst Jeff Asher states that crimes reported to law enforcement are dropping considerably in cities and states. One of those cities is Baltimore.

The City of Baltimore “celebrated” that they are no longer one of the top 25 most dangerous cities in the country. “Baltimore is no longer among the most dangerous places in the United States, according to U.S. News & World Report. The digital media company released its Most Dangerous Places in the U.S. in 2024-2025 list, and despite being a typical entrant among the Top 25, Baltimore was not included in the list this year,” WBFF.

There were well over a thousand comments on Facebook, and almost all expressed concern that Baltimore remains a dangerous place to live or visit. It was clear that the overwhelming number of responding citizens do not believe the data or find it meaningless.

Are Cities Offering Accurate Crime Statistics?

Let’s be fair about this, from multiple sources, “reported” city crime seems to be dropping considerably. If the decreases were occurring in five or ten cities, I would be skeptical. But the declines seem to be happening in most cities surveyed via their publicly available police crime dashboards. If there is a conspiracy to manipulate crime data, it would be huge.

So no, I accept the “reported” crime data offered by Jeff Asher, the Major Cities Chiefs Association, and the Council on Criminal Justice, as well as the FBI. They all state that “reported” crime is down in cities. Homicides are down, and murders are generally a bellwether of overall crime.

Is It That Simple?

There’s nothing simple about crime statistics. It would take something much larger than an article to provide readers with the context needed to understand national and city crime data. I’ve written about this in the past, so I will summarize and provide sources for those interested in the complexities.

Cities Offering Inaccurate Crime Data: When I left law enforcement and went to college decades ago, we studied how multiple cities manipulated their crime statistics to keep numbers as low as possible. Chicago was one of the cities studied. So first, yes, it happens. If I had a dollar for every cop who has expressed skepticism about their city’s crime statistics, I would be rich.

National Crime Statistics: Gauging national crime numbers and rates is also a confusing mess. Per the US Department of Justice’s National Crime Victimization Survey, violent crime rates are up by record numbers, approximately 44 percent for the latest full report in 2023. It’s the largest increase in violent crime in US history. The flip side is FBI data indicating a three percent decrease in violent crime for its latest full report in 2023.

So it all depends on the criteria and methods you use for the relevancy of crime numbers.

Unreported Crimes: We need to acknowledge that the overwhelming majority of what we call crime is not reported to law enforcement, so whatever shows up in city, state, or national crime data from police agencies and the FBI is a small percentage of overall crime. Eighty percent of what we call crime are property events, and, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics, only 30 percent of property crimes are reported to law enforcement. Seven percent of cybercrimes are reported.

Fear Of Crime: According to Gallup and other surveys, fear of crime remains at record highs. If crime is down in cities or nationally, most Americans are not buying it.

What Is A Fair Measurement Of Crime, Total Crimes, Or Total Incidents?

The FBI introduced its National Incident-Based Reporting System in 1998, yet it was only recently that most police agencies adopted it. Implemented to improve the overall quality of crime data collected by law enforcement, the NIBRS captures enhanced details on each single crime incident, as well as on separate offenses within the same incident. The program was designed to be qualitative; an improved measure capturing better details about crime.

However, police agencies were reluctant to participate because it collected up to ten crimes per incident. This could push up local crime numbers. The FBI stated that the vast majority of incidents would only include one crime, but criminal events often produce multiple charges, thus multiple crimes.

A robbery could involve an assault, a firearm, credit card or phone theft, an attempt to sell stolen property, or a parole violation. So, do we have one event or multiple different crimes?

The primary question is whether those additional crimes collected via the NIBRS methodology would appear in state or city crime reports.

The FBI Only Includes The Most Serious Crime In National Reports

The FBI only reports the primary crime reported by law enforcement, even though they count up to ten crimes per incident under the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS).

The FBI is not counting millions of crimes in its national reports.

There is no conspiracy on the part of the FBI to suppress crime data. They want to keep their methodology the same for yearly comparisons using their previous Summary Reporting System, which only counts the most serious crime. Multiple crimes included, however, do provide a better understanding of events, the purpose of the NIBRS.

Are City Or State Crime Dashboards Recording The Primary-Most Serious Crime Or All Crimes Associated With Incidents?

I assume that law enforcement agencies do the same as the FBI through their crime dashboards; they are only offering the most serious crime to remain consistent with the FBI’s national policy as to crime reporting.

74.4 percent of police agencies are using the NIBRS criteria. Approximately 82% of the US population is covered by police agencies using the FBI’s National Incident-Based Reporting System. That means that local police agencies are now collecting up to ten crimes per incident to comply with the FBI’s system. Are cities and states reporting this additional data? If the FBI is sticking to offering one primary crime per incident, I assume that local law enforcement crime dashboards are doing the same.

But the bottom line means that only the most serious charges may end up on city or state crime dashboards rather than all crimes. Yes, it’s one incident (or related incidents). Yes, it’s probably one location. But the charging document may indicate multiple crimes committed.

Sticking with the most serious crime allows cities and states the ability to compare current to past crime statistics, the same rational use by the FBI in their national crime data. If the FBI and cities included the newly collected crimes via NIBRS methodology, there would have to be multiple crime reports.

I Asked Chat GPT If Cities Or States Are Offering All Crimes Through Their Crime Dashboards Or Just The Most Serious Crime

“Yes, you’re correct in your understanding. While law enforcement agencies participating in the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) record multiple offenses per incident, their public crime dashboards typically display only the most serious offense per incident, aligning with the FBI’s current reporting practices.”

Baltimore Police Department

“The Baltimore Police Department (BPD) has transitioned to NIBRS, enabling the recording of up to 10 offenses per incident. However, their public crime dashboards, such as the Open Baltimore DataStats, present a summarized version of Part I victim-based crime data. This approach focuses on the most serious offense per incident, rather than listing all offenses recorded under NIBRS”. Governor’s Office of Crime Policy–baltimorepolice.org+1baltimorepolice.org+1

Atlanta Police Department

“Similarly, the Atlanta Police Department (APD) provides crime data through its Open Data Portal. While APD collects detailed NIBRS data internally, the publicly available reports, such as the Weekly COBRA Reports, typically highlight the primary offense per incident. This practice simplifies the data for public consumption and maintains consistency with traditional reporting methods.” Atlanta Police Open Data+1atlantapd.org+1atlantapd.org

In Summary

“In summary, although agencies like BPD and APD collect comprehensive NIBRS data internally, their public dashboards generally display only the most serious offense per incident. This approach aligns with the FBI’s summary reporting practices (emphasis added) and ensures consistency and clarity in public crime statistics.”

What Are The Crimes States Use For Their Crime Dashboards

Readers are welcome to view Jeff Asher’s The State of States Publishing Crime Data — 2025 Edition listing states providing real crime data. I reviewed the websites offering current crime data for their criteria.

Some suggest that they use only the most serious crime (Arizona, Colorado, Michigan), while others state that they use NIBRS data, “but” they don’t say if all NIBRS crimes are included or if they are relying on the most serious crimes per the Summary Reporting System.

I Asked The FBI

I asked the FBI if they had criteria or guidance for cities or states as to what crimes they use in their reports, all crimes via the NIBRS, or the most serious crime via the Summary Reporting System. Their response: “For questions about how local agencies are choosing to report, the FBI would suggest contacting those agencies directly.”

Crime Stacking-Overcharging

All jurisdictions charge criminal offenders with multiple crimes. Why?

Understand that the great majority of crimes are plea-bargained (90-95 percent) which means that charged burglaries become convicted thefts through a plea-bargain, thus many crime incidents could (and often do) involve multiple charges to ensure that offenders serve an appropriate amount of accountability (fines, community service, jail, prison, or being supervised on parole and probation). This is referred to as “charge stacking” or “overcharging.” It’s well covered in criminology literature.

Just note that plea bargaining based on multiple charges is necessary. If those charged with crimes demanded jury trials, the justice system would collapse in a week. Multiple criminal charges prompt plea bargains.

I was the director of public information for the Maryland Department of Public Safety for 14 years. The state took over the operations of the Baltimore City Jail and created a new booking center. To become familiar with the jail and booking center, I spent days in the booking area watching operations. It was common for an individual to be charged with multiple crimes, or they were booked on one crime with the understanding that more were forthcoming.

National Jail Data And Charge Stacking

People frequently face multiple charges when they are booked into jail. “People booked into jail often face more than just one criminal charge: in our sample, there were an average of four separate charges per person. When we look at all charges for each booking rather than “top” (most serious) charges, we find that the most frequently-used charges are often not the same as the most common top charges. People in jail often face “stacked” charges, where additional charges are added on to the most severe charge.”

While there’s no definitive national figure on the average number of charges per arrest, local jail data suggest that multiple charges are the norm rather than the exception. The Prison Policy Initiative found an average of four charges per jail booking, indicating widespread use of charge stacking. However, due to fragmented data systems, the true scope of charge stacking at the arrest level remains largely unmeasured.

Most people arrested do not end up in jails, thus, we still do not have firm data on multiple charges.

Conclusions

If President Trump is willing to take on national and local crime statistics, then he’s willing to take on endless contradictions and decades of debate.

Declining “reported” crime at the local and national levels is good news. I don’t believe in national conspiracies, thus I trust that crimes reported to law enforcement (most are not) are going down both nationally and locally.

Just note that the operative phrase is “reported” crime, not all crime. The next consideration is the criteria that crime dashboards use to count crimes and what they offer to the public.

We need to understand that reported crime represents a small snapshot of total crime, and decreases could easily be increases if we knew total numbers.

Interestingly, we do have total numbers via the National Crime Victimization Survey, and they claim the nation’s highest increase in rates of violence for their latest reports. The FBI, based on reported crime, claims a three percent decrease for its latest full report.

But there are all sorts of things happening at the local level that have an impact on crime numbers and perceptions:

Per NBC News, “National Guard to help Albuquerque, NM fight crime, but some wonder if it’s necessary. Although overall crime has decreased in the Sun Belt city of more than half a million people, the move is intended as a proactive measure to keep the numbers down, they said.”

Per the San Francisco Chronicle, “On Wednesday morning, BART officials touted a 50% year-over-year reduction in crime, which they called “the largest drops in crime in the more than 50-year history of the agency,” on social media. But while crime rates on BART are down — nearly to pre-pandemic levels on a per-ride basis, the Chronicle found — it isn’t down quite as much as BART says. That statistic seems to be a math error.”

Per The Washington Times, “In her letter to the Trump “D.C. Safe and Beautiful Task Force,” Mayor Muriel Bowser touts a 35% drop in violent crime in 2024 compared to 2023, including a 32% drop in homicides. She acknowledges that “the District still has work to do” in “making DC the safest city in the country.” Talk about an understatement!”

“The homicide rate in 2024 was 27.3, according to the Center for Public Safety Initiatives at Rochester Institute of Technology. While a big drop from the 2023 spike, it still ranked fourth-worst in the country. If D.C. were a state, it would have the highest homicide rate of any state in the United States, and would be retaining that dubious title year after year.”

I could offer more examples of recent media reports indicating that accurate crime counts and perceptions remain an issue for many jurisdictions.

We should note that the majority of city crime reports from the Major Cities Chiefs Association indicated increases for at least one crime category.

Firearm-related death Is more acute for Black and Latino men than deployed U.S. soldiers. Fear of crime is at an all-time high per Gallup. Crime was cited in numerous polls as a reason for voter preferences during the presidential election. A new poll from the Houston Chronicle documents national concerns about crime.

Democrats have consistently stated that their failure to embrace the crime issue may have cost them the election.

Preliminary national crime reports (one based on city crime dashboard numbers by a private organization) have been wrong in the past. Even the FBI’s preliminary data turns out to be an exaggeration at times.

The reality of American concern about crime remains a challenge. As you are aware, the National Crime Victimization Survey tells us that rates of violence are at record highs per their latest reports, where crimes reported to the police through the FBI state that violent crime decreased by three percent.

But yes, per three different sources based on reported crime via crime dashboards, state and local counts are down considerably. I do not fault local law enforcement agencies for only counting the most serious crime and keeping their yearly statistics consistent. I do not fault police agencies for staying in lockstep with the FBI’s reporting system.

However, it’s necessary to understand that many additional crimes are not being offered to the public, either through unreported crimes or by not including additional crimes collected through the National Incident-Based Reporting System.

Thus, citizen perceptions (and the opinion of a ton of cops) suggest that there are more crimes committed than those reported through city or state crime dashboards.

Per the Marshall Project, the Trump administration wants to rely more heavily on crime data from the National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ.

BJS can geo-locate crime statistics with metropolitan areas. BJS data is far more numerous, thus it is probably more accurate than FBI statistics. It may not be a bad idea as long as the particulars (what’s collected and how they are collected) are explained.

Reviewing and rearranging how we collect national crime data may be in our best interest. Combining FBI crimes reported to law enforcement (the vast majority are not) with the National Crime Victimization Survey’s much larger numbers could give the nation a better understanding of crime and possible solutions. If it happens, it will be a dramatic change.

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Will Trump Change National Crime Statistics? Are We Getting Accurate Crime Data?

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