Highlights
Gallup offers a poll on perceptions of crime-related safety for 16 American cities.
Do one-year reductions or increases in city crime rates or totals impact fear of crime?
Three sources state that city homicides for 2023 are decreasing. Will that impact citizen fear of crime?
Author
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.
Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet. Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public affairs-University of Maryland, University College. Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.
Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.
Quotes
All quotes are edited for brevity.
Opinion-Introduction
Gallup released a list of 16 cities rated for perceptions of crime. I cross-referenced Gallup’s 16 cities with the latest city crime data for comparison purposes to see if there was a connection between yearly crime increases or decreases and perceptions of citizen safety.
Article
Fear of crime is an endlessly debatable issue. Criminologists have stated for decades that fear or concern or perceptions of safety have endless variables.
Fear is based on more than rates or numbers of crimes. As stated in endless criminological studies, it has more to do with perceptions of disorder than anything else. Conditions include litter, graffiti, prostitution, homelessness, drug houses, noise, media coverage, and anything unsettling to community members.
Property crime plays a significant role because the vast majority of what we call crime includes property victimization.
Beyond the 24 percent of households victimized by violent and property crimes, 23% of U.S. households were victimized by cybercrime, Gallup-2018. This means that close to half of American households are touched by crime in one year which has to have an impact on citizen perceptions of safety. There are people who move or live in fear because of burglaries. Data suggests a growing number of suicidal thoughts due to ID theft.
Any city can be considered unsafe to some degree yet people who live in thriving areas of that city will insist that life is good and fear is at a minimum. It’s a matter of context.
Thus “fear” of crime or “perceptions” of crime is almost impossible to measure precisely. Yet we do it in the same way we compare city and state crime rates to gauge a level of dangerousness. It’s imprecise but we do it regardless.
It should be noted that, at the moment, we are at record highs regarding fear of crime.
What’s Below
Below is a Gallup poll (it’s getting considerable national news coverage) compared to Jeff Asher’s list of crime increases and decreases for cities. Mr. Asher has one of the best available crime data sets for cities in the country, and big city data often influences counts for an entire state.
Mr. Asher and two other sources all agree that homicides are decreasing in 2023. Overall violent crime is either decreasing or flat depending on the source you use. Auto theft is increasing considerably. Burglaries are down but nonresidential burglaries have increased.
Why Are We Using City Crime Data?
Most crime writers are analyzing reported city data instead of national figures from the FBI (reported crime) and the National Crime Victimization Survey because they are years behind in data production or there’s not sufficient participation (FBI) or there is a movement to redesign the National Crime Victimization Survey (thus implying that their counts may need improvement).
Findings
The question from Gallup (below) is interesting because it doesn’t solely measure resident perceptions. It includes those visiting or never visiting. Nevertheless, I compare Gallup’s data with Jeff Asher’s city crime numbers comparing violent crime from 2022 to 2023.
For 16 of Gallup’s chosen cities, 5 were not included in Jeff Asher’s studied cities thus there is no comparison of violent crime data for those five.
Per Gallup-Perceptions Of Safety
Per Gallup, Philadelphia, New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Detroit all fall under the 50 percent level of perceived safety. Chicago at 27 percent and Detroit at 26 percent are shocking.
Washington, D.C. comes in at 52 percent. San Francisco is also at 52 percent. Atlanta (54 percent), New Orleans (55 percent), Houston (57 percent), Minneapolis (58 percent), and Mamai at 59 percent have crime perception problems.
Las Vegas (61 percent) and Seattle (63 percent) do a bit better and only two cities, Boston at 72 percent and Dallas at 74 percent might be considered safe by Gallup’s measure.
Do Yearly Crime Numbers And Rates Influence Perceptions Of Safety?
As stated above, perceptions of safety regarding crime are influenced by a wide variety of factors. Crime numbers and rates are just one consideration. Jeff Asher measured changes in urban crime from 2022-2023. I focus on the changes in violent crime.
I understand why Washington D.C. is only at 52 percent feeling safe considering a 38 percent increase in violent crime. Chicago where only 27 percent feel safe because of a 10 percent increase in violent crime makes sense.
But in Philadelphia with 47 percent feeling safe with an 8 percent reduction in violent crime and in New York where 41 percent feel safe with a 0.3 percent increase (basically flat) in violent crime, and in Atlanta where 54 percent feel safe with a 24 percent reduction in violent crime and in New Orleans where 55 percent feel safe with a 19 percent reduction in violent crime tells me that “recent” yearly changes in crime rates or totals are not a good predictor of how safe people feel.
Per Gallup, Democrats have a much higher-better perception of safety than Republicans, thus results may depend on who you ask.
Per Gallup, many cities have increased their perceptions of safety over time (New Orleans, Mamai, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles) whereas in others, there have been steep declines (Minneapolis, Seattle, San Francisco, and Chicago).
Gallup
Gallup’s Question: Now thinking about some large cities, both those you have visited and those you have never visited, from what you know and have read, do you consider each of the following cities to be safe to live in or visit, or not?
Dallas-74 percent feel safe. No Comparison Available With Jeff Asher’s Data
Boston-72 percent feel safe. No Comparison Available With Jeff Asher’s Data
Seattle-63 percent feel safe. 14 percent reduction in violent crime
Las Vegas-61 percent feel safe. No Comparison Available With Jeff Asher’s Data
Miami-59 percent feel safe. 3.4 percent increase in violent crime
Minneapolis-58 percent feel safe. 16.4 percent reduction in violent crime
Houston-57 percent feel safe. No Comparison Available With Jeff Asher’s Data
New Orleans-55 percent feel safe. 19 percent reduction in violent crime
Atlanta-54 percent feel safe. 24 percent reduction in violent crime
San Francisco-52 percent feel safe. 2.4 percent increase in violent crime
Washington D.C.-52 percent feel safe. 38 percent increase in violent crime
Philadelphia-47 percent feel safe. 8 percent reduction in violent crime
New York-41 percent feel safe. 0.3 percent increase in violent crime
Los Angeles-41 percent feel safe. 2 percent reduction in violent crime
Chicago-27 percent feel safe. 10 percent increase in violent crime
Detroit-26 percent feel safe. No Comparison Available With Jeff Asher’s Data
Jeff Asher’s City Crime Comparisons
Conclusions
One-year increases or decreases in crime rates or totals tell a very incomplete picture of citizen safety. Obviously, there are other many factors to consider. It’s equally obvious that sustained increases or decreases in violence or overall crime over time play a role in perceptions of individual safety.
Telling a city with considerable crime problems that there has been a ten percent reduction in violent crime will probably do little to lessen their fear of violence. Percentage reductions are abstract. Community members have to see, feel, touch, and taste reductions in crime. They will judge their safety based on what they experience in their own communities plus media reports of nearby crime.
But imagine the economic impact of safety based on Gallup’s “Now thinking about some large cities, both those you have visited and those you have never visited, from what you know and have read, do you consider each of the following cities to be safe to live in or visit, or not?”
Based on Gallup’s research, would you place or expand a new business in Detroit or Chicago or Los Angeles or New York? Washington D.C. escapes the economic ramifications because of its the location of national political power. New York is somewhat saved because it’s the center of financial power. Many other cities are not so lucky.
But for many urban areas, Gallup’s poll means investors taking a very hard look when considering economic development or new housing, or any investments at all. High-crime cities or perceptions of fear have the potential to destroy economies.
So it’s a matter of crime rates and totals over time and multiple other factors that influence whether cities get tourists or economic development or jobs or growth.
It’s a lack of fear that makes a city thrive both spiritually and economically.
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