Violent And Property Crimes By Month

Highlights

Data for the most prominent months for violent and property crimes are available.

Times that most crimes occur are also offered.

Author

Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.

Retired federal senior spokesperson. Thirty-five years of directing award-winning public relations (and explaining crime data) for national and state criminal justice agencies. Interviewed multiple times by every national news outlet.

Former Senior Specialist for Crime Prevention for the Department of Justice’s clearinghouse. Former Director of Information Services, National Crime Prevention Council. Former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public affairs-University of Maryland, University College.

Former advisor to presidential and gubernatorial campaigns. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Certificate of Advanced Study-Johns Hopkins University. Former police officer. Aspiring drummer.

Author of ”Success With The Media: Everything You Need To Survive Reporters and Your Organization” available at Amazon and additional booksellers.

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Quotes

All quotes are edited for brevity.

Background

This is the fifteenth in a series offering data from the FBI’s latest crime reports based on crimes reported to law enforcement. The first was Locations Of Violent Crime-Where Crime Happens.  The second was The Time Of Day For Violent And Property Crimes. The third was Violent Crime Totals By State. The fourth was Violent Crime Victims By Race And Ethnicity-Who’s Victimized Most? The fifth was Are Females Violently Victimized More Than Males? The sixth is Most People Are Violently Victimized By Family Members Or People They Know. The seventh is 10 Percent Of Violent Victimizations Involved A Firearm-Weapons Used During Crime. The eighth is Most Crimes Are Not Solved-Why? The ninth is 250,000 Attempted But Failed Property Crimes Per The FBI-Reasons Why. The tenth is What Causes Murders And Aggravated Assaults? The eleventh was Crime Victims By Age-Those 50 And Above Have Surprisingly High Numbers. The twelfth was Understanding How The US Collects Reported Crime Data. The thirteenth is How Many Americans Are Victimized By Violent And Property Crime Yearly? The fourteenth is Males Are Arrested Far More Than Females Yet Women In Prison Skyrocket.

Most Crimes Are Not Reported

Per the National Crime Victimization Survey from the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the US Department of Justice, only 42 percent of violent crimes are reported to law enforcement.

Thirty-two percent of property crimes are reported. The great majority of what we call crime are property-related events which means that most crime is not recorded by the FBI.

Nevertheless, the numbers below from the FBI are some of the best indicators we have regarding the total number of “reported” crimes and the characteristics of those crimes.

Article

We analyze the time of day and months when violent crime occurs. Months for property crime are also included.

An updated chart from the FBI is below. I use rounded numbers for my analysis.

Readers ask for the most dangerous months and times for violent crime with the presumption that knowing this allows them to take extra precautions or judge their degree of risk.

Yes, there are differences between months for crime but, when compared to the overall US population, the dissimilarities seem small. There may be safer months, but there are no months where you are free from danger.

Time Of Day For Crime

The Time Of Day For Violent And Property Crimes is available separately at the link provided. Most crimes are afternoon to evening events with an exception for sex offenses.

You can summarize by suggesting that the midnight-1:00 a.m. time slot during warmer months is the most dangerous for reported violent crime, but there is no safe time or month when it comes to lowering your chances for violent victimization. It’s a matter of degree of risk.

Months For Crime

Every year, there are media reports of law enforcement agencies gearing up for the “dangerous” summer months.

I use crimes reported to law enforcement via the FBI for this analysis. I’m thankful for the FBI’s willingness to do a separate and updated data run for months of crime for 2022 (the latest full yearly report).

My use of numbers is subjective. Yes, there may be a 6,000 difference in motor vehicle thefts between February and the peak month of July. Still, when compared to 279,000,000 registered motor vehicles in the US, the difference is instructive but not very meaningful compared to the universe of vehicles.

December Dominates?

December dominates all other months for violent and property crime months (except for arson), which doesn’t make sense. Crime is traditionally a warm-weather proposition.

December has always been a high month for robberies, but it’s the warm weather months that have traditionally led for violent crime.

It turns out that the data is flawed by many police agencies submitting their numbers at the end of the calendar year, which inflates December data.

From the FBI: “Our Crime Statistics Management Unit advised that sometimes when a state/agency sends data once a year, the figures fall in December, inflating the December totals.” This was their response to my previous article on this topic in 2020, and that observation still holds.

Thus we discard December data and look to the other months for guidance.

Violent Crime And The Warm Weather Months 

July is the highest month for aggravated assaults, homicides, and robbery. May is the highest month for sex offenses. Violent crime seems centered during warmer weather months.

The lowest months for aggravated assaults are January, February, and November.

The lowest months for homicides are January, February, March, and November.

The lowest months for robberies are February and November.

The lowest months for sex offenses are February and November.

Observations For Months Of Violent Crime

Violent crime is clustered during warmer months, “but” there doesn’t seem to be a significant difference for the remaining months.

There may be a difference for aggravated assaults, the most common form of violent crime (59,716 in February versus 80,397 in July) but with 336 million Americans, your chances for violent crime are spread somewhat evenly throughout the warmer months of the year.

The highest months for homicides are May through August.

The highest months for robberies are May through October. January is also a high month.

The highest months for sex offenses are just about every month except for February and November.

Criminologists and crime prevention experts understand that many criminal events are crimes of opportunity, and during warmer months, there are more people in public, thus more opportunities.

Sex offenses are primarily crimes that take place in residential settings, thus they are less prone to monthly variances.

There are differences in monthly crime counts. But there’s not a “safe” month for violent crime. A 3,000+ difference between February and July for robberies means little when compared to the overall US population but it “may” be meaningful for those at high risk (i.e., the disabled, lower income groups, young males).

Months For Property Crime-2022

The concern of law enforcement agencies reporting a disproportionate number of crimes in December (thus inflating December data) continues to apply to property crimes.

We will not use December data for our analysis.

July is the highest month for burglaries. They seem to mostly occur from May to October.

Motor vehicle theft mostly occurs somewhat evenly throughout the year with lower numbers in February and April.

Larcenies peak in August. The lowest months for larcenies are January, February, and November.

Like violent crime, property crime remains a concern throughout the year. When spread throughout 336 million people, there are monthly differences but they are not profound.

Chart From The FBI (you can enlarge by clicking on the chart)

Conclusions

You can summarize the above by suggesting that the midnight-1:00 a.m. time slot during warmer months is the most dangerous period for reported violent crime.

“But,” and it’s a big “but,” violence occurs throughout the day and year with some degree of constancy.  Yes, cold weather months and the early morning time slots seem “safer,” but, quite simply, there is not a time or month when you are safe from violent crime. It’s a matter of degree.

Property crimes mostly occur during warmer months.

Crime Prevention

For additional crime prevention techniques, see Prevention.